NFL Best Bets Week 10: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions
The Denver Broncos and quarterback Russell Wilson headline our best bets, as they look to pull off a road upset over the Tennessee Titans. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our NFL best bets for Week 10.
Week 10 opened with the Carolina Panthers topping the Atlanta Falcons 25-15 as home underdogs, and the rest of the schedule is loaded with exciting games. The action begins with the Seattle Seahawks-Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup in Munich, Germany, and concludes with a divisional bout between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
Here are our best bets for the NFL's Week 10 slate (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet, and BetMGM; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our top picks for Week 10!
Week 10 NFL Schedule and Odds
(odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills
- Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
- Houston Texans vs. New York Giants
- New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans
- Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 10 NFL Best Bets
- Moneyline: Buccaneers + Chiefs + Cowboys + 49ers parlay (+323 via PointsBet)
- Spread: Raiders -4.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Total: Lions-Bears Under 48.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Upset: Broncos (+130 via Caesars)
- Player Prop: Russell Wilson Over 226.5 passing yards (-111 via BetMGM)
NFL Top Picks
Moneyline: Buccaneers + Chiefs + Cowboys + 49ers (+323) ★★★★★
I love this parlay on multiple levels. To start, it begins with the early game being played in Germany and continues all day through to the Sunday Night Football showdown.
Secondly, I expect it to cash.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers stand as a steep uptick in class for the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has faced the third-easiest schedule by DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and Tampa has a high-end defense.
Similarly, the Jacksonville Jaguars have faced the easiest schedule in the league by DVOA and have just a single road win all season. The Green Bay Packers are also mired in a 0-5 stretch with a minus-40 point differential, and the Dallas Cowboys head to Lambeau Field rested following their Week 9 bye.
To conclude the parlay, the San Francisco 49ers are also off their bye week and draw the Los Angeles Chargers, who are playing their second road game in consecutive weeks. Los Angeles barely survived the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9, and the 49ers have the better defense and could have multiple impact starters returning to the lineup.
This four-game parlay is also trading as low as +279 via Caesars, so there's significant value added by taking your action to PointsBet.
Spread: Raiders -4.5 (-107) ★★★★
There’s been betting support for the Indianapolis Colts this week, and this spread has dropped as a result. Indy will face the Las Vegas Raiders with a coach and play caller with no NFL experience, and starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger is 0-2 while throwing for 5.8 yards per attempt. The Colts have scored a total of 29 points during their three-game losing streak, too.
The Raiders have an endless list of flaws, but they’ve also won and covered consecutive home games. Additionally, though the Vegas offense has been inconsistent, it has flashed and ranks 15th in points per game despite being blanked in Week 8 against the New Orleans Saints.
I also don’t consider tight end Darren Waller (hamstring) and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow (oblique) being placed on injured reserve as significant losses, considering neither has been on the field consistently all season. Furthermore, I expect the Raiders to win in the trenches, as they boast the superior pass rush and offensive line. Vegas ranks 17 spots higher in team pass-rush win rate and grades better in both run and pass blocking, according to PFF.
Total: Lions-Bears Under 48.5 (-107) ★★★
This total has climbed three points from the look-ahead number of 45.5 via DraftKings. It also stands as the highest total of the season for the Chicago Bears, and the third-highest of Week 10. The Over is also receiving 71% of the betting handle via BetMGM.
The Detroit Lions and Bears have had a common recent opponent in the Miami Dolphins, and the total skyrocketed Over the number in both of those matchups. However, I’m chalking that up more to Miami's explosive offense and porous defense than what the Lions and Bears bring to the table offensively.
Chicago and Detroit respectively rank 31st and 28th in defense grade per PFF, and 31st and 26th in defensive DVOA. I suspect that’s also driving plenty of the Over action, and especially on the heels of Bears quarterback Justin Fields having a historic showing in Week 9.
Still, this is a division game that’ll be played outdoors at Soldier Field. While the wind isn’t likely to make an impact, I’m expecting the frigid temperatures to help cool these offenses down and keep the number Under this inflated total.
Upset: Broncos (+130) ★★★★
I’m giving the Denver Broncos a notable edge in the schedule spot off their bye week. I also view this as a letdown spot for the Tennessee Titans following their 20-17 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 9.
The Titans have faced the second-easiest schedule by DVOA, and the Broncos enter with an elite defense. Denver has surrendered the second-lowest EPA per play and ranks second in both defensive DVOA and defense grade, per PFF.
With the Tennessee offense already struggling and ranking last in yards per game, I anticipate the Broncos hanging around and giving their offense an opportunity to pull off the road upset.
Player prop: Russell Wilson Over 226.5 passing yards (-111) ★★★★★
The Titans top the league in run defense DVOA and sport the third-highest run defense grade, per PFF, so I’m expecting the Broncos to attack through the air early and often Sunday. Wilson and the Broncos also have the luxury of a Week 9 bye to prepare to attack the Titans vertically.
Wilson has cleared this total in four of seven starts this season, and I have him projected for 241.4 passing yards this week. The Tennessee defense was also on the field for 41:28 and 100 snaps during the Week 9 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. It's hard to imagine there won't be a carryover impact against the Broncos.
Add that the Titans have faced the second-easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA, and this 226.5 passing-yard total is short. It's worth adding that DraftKings has Over 225.5 available at -115, but I prefer the better payout over the extra-yard cushion.
Where to Bet on the NFL
NFL Week 10 best bets made on 11/11/22 at 11:40 a.m ET.
Related Articles
