Texans vs. Giants Picks, Predictions Week 10: Look For Both Teams to Run Wild
The Houston Texans and New York Giants have both been miserable defending the run, and both can also move the rock on the ground. That sounds like a recipe for some big rushing totals. Read on for that and more in our Texans-Giants picks.
The Giants are fresh off a bye and ready to re-establish their momentum in the NFC East. They return home, where they’re 3-1, and can grab sole possession of second place in the division with a win and a Dallas Cowboys loss.
Meanwhile, the Texans aren’t even thinking about positioning at the moment; they’d just like to win some football games. They’ve dropped three straight and have won just one game all season, which took place earlier this year in Jacksonville.
Here are our best picks and predictions for the Week 10 matchup between the Texans and Giants (odds via PointsBet, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our NFL picks for Week 10, along with our best bets and touchdown scorer props.
Texans vs. Giants Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 13, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Weather: 55 degrees, cloudy
Texans vs. Giants Odds
Texans vs. Giants Odds Analysis
The Texans opened as 6-point underdogs and have attracted many bettors. As it stands, they’re getting anywhere from 4 to 5.5 points, with the latter available at FanDuel. DraftKings Sportsbook has moved this all the way to 4 points.
DraftKings is also reporting just 25% of the handle and 25% of the bets are on the Texans.
Meanwhile, 54% of the bets and 71% of the handle are on the Over. That’s why we’ve seen that number move from 38.5 all the way to 41.
Texans vs. Giants Picks
Texans vs. Giants ATS Pick
Texans +5.5 (-105) ★★★
I’m not the biggest fan of playing this spread in any capacity. However, I'd roll with the Texans if I had to choose a side.
First, Giants safety Xavier McKinney will miss this game because he was injured in an ATV accident during the bye week. He’s an incredibly important member of the secondary and will join corner Aaron Robinson on the sideline. Additionally, the Giants are listing linebacker Oshane Ximines as questionable and are already withhout defensive end Nick Williams.
This is a battered and bruised New York defense – particularly the secondary – and I think that opens things up for Houston.
The Texans are 24th in DVOA on the ground and have found something with Dameon Pierce running the ball; he’s coming off a 139-yard performance against the Eagles.
For their part, the Giants are 25th in defensive DVOA and are now dealing with multiple injuries on that side of the ball. That should give the Texans a way in.
Texans vs. Giants O/U Pick
Over 40.5 (-107) ★★★★★
No defense? Sign me up for the Over! Both of these teams are bottom seven in DVOA on defense, with the Texans ranking third-worst, and Houston is 32nd against the run. The Giants haven’t been Over-cashing machines this season, but one thing they love to do is run the ball.
That should help get us there. New York is fourth in rush play rate this season - averaging 4.9 yards per carry, which ranks 10th - and is in the top five in rushing yards per game and rushing touchdowns per game. That’s going to absolutely destroy Houston.
As I noted above, though, this Giants defense shouldn’t be able to stop Pierce with the way he’s running right now. It might be a lot of running, and a slow pace, but this number is still far too low given the success rate both should have when moving the ball.
Texans vs. Giants Prop Pick
Barkley Over 92.5 rushing yards (-115) ★★★★★
I know this is a high number, but it’s simply not high enough. This is arguably one of the three best running backs in the NFL going against the very worst rushing defense. In each of the last three weeks, a running back has gashed Houston for Over 92.5 yards. First, it was Josh Jacobs, then Derrick Henry, and then Miles Sanders. It will happen again with this elite back.
Barkley himself has gone Over this number three times this season and has done so in two of his last four games. The Giants’ game plan will clearly call for a lot of running, so I have no concerns here about Barkley’s usage.
Where to Bet on Texans-Giants Picks
Texans-Giants picks made 11/10/2022 at 9:02 p.m. ET
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