NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks for Week 10: Wilson Fishing For End Zone vs. Browns
Miami Dolphins running back Jeff Wilson and a pair of rookie Tampa Bay Buccaneers headline our NFL touchdown scorer prop picks for Week 10.
Tracking down the best available odds in the touchdown markets has been paramount to the success of this column. This week, there are a couple more notable outliers that caught my attention.
Here are our Week 10 NFL touchdown prop picks (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 10!
Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Jeff Wilson anytime touchdown (+135 via Caesars)
- Rachaad White anytime touchdown (+310 via BetMGM)
- Cade Otton anytime touchdown (+425 via DraftKings)
Wilson anytime TD (+135) ★★★★
The Cleveland Browns-Miami Dolphins game has the second-highest Over/Under total of the week, and Wilson found the end zone in his Week 9 debut with the ‘Fins. This is also a great matchup for the Miami rushing attack.
Cleveland has surrendered 12 touchdowns to opposing running backs through eight games and ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA and 31st in run defense grade, according to PFF. Wilson also has ample experience with head coach Mike McDaniel's rushing schemes, as the two spent the previous four seasons together with the San Francisco 49ers.
It’s not a leap to suggest McDaniel handpicked Wilson to bolster the Miami running game.
Additionally, there is extra value in the odds via Caesars, as Wilson is trading as low as -110 to find the end zone against the Browns via DraftKings.
White anytime TD (+310) ★
There’s been considerable buzz surrounding Rachaad White’s role expanding in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense the past two weeks, and BetMGM has an outlier number available for him to find the end zone Sunday.
White is trading as low as +150 to score a touchdown via DraftKings, so I consider the odds available via BetMGM to provide incredible value.
The Seattle Seahawks have surrendered eight touchdowns to opposing running backs through nine games, and White is also coming off a career-high eight carries in Week 9. Unfortunately, he’s garnered only three red-zone totes all season, so I’m viewing this primarily as a value bet based on the odds, hence the one-star confidence.
Check out our Seahawks vs. Buccaneers picks.
Otton anytime TD (+425) ★★
This is a soft matchup, with the Seahawks having surrendered a healthy five touchdowns and 9.68 yards per target to opposing tight ends this season while also ranking fourth-last in DVOA against the position, per Football Outsiders.
While Otton just scored his first-career touchdown in Week 9, he’s the clear No. 1 tight end on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and has garnered eight red-zone targets and 26 total through the past five games.
The odds available via DraftKings are also significantly higher than the +250 BetMGM is hanging for Otton to score. Bucs quarterback Tom Brady knows a thing or two about connecting for touchdowns with tight ends, and Otton scoring in Munich would be a great way to start Sunday's betting action.
Two or More Touchdowns Pick
- Josh Jacobs, Raiders (+600 via DraftKings)
Jacobs 2+ touchdowns (+600) ★★
Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs hasn’t found the end zone since Week 7 when he scored three times and for the third consecutive game. I’m viewing this as a bounce-back spot at Allegiant Stadium. Plus, Jacobs has scored multiple touchdowns in each of Vegas’ past two home games.
The concern rests solely on the Indianapolis Colts being one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. Indy ranks fifth in run defense DVOA and sixth in run defense grade, per PFF. Additionally, the Colts have surrendered only six touchdowns to opposing running backs through nine games.
Still, I’m not recommending Jacobs to go over his yardage total. He just needs to find the end zone twice. Considering he’s trading as low as +230 to score multiple touchdowns via Caesars, this is also another opportunity to add significantly more value through the offering via DraftKings.
Anytime TD scorer + Team to Win Parlay Pick
- Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown + 49ers win (+100 via DraftKings)
McCaffrey anytime TD + 49ers win (+100) ★★★★
I’m incredibly bullish on the San Francisco 49ers topping the Los Angeles Chargers this week, and the way San Fran utilized running back Christian McCaffrey in Week 8 was beyond encouraging.
The Chargers have surrendered 12 touchdowns to opposing running backs through eight games, and they’re also allowing a league-high 6.03 yards per carry. Add Los Angeles ranking 29th in rush defense DVOA and 27th in run defense grade, per PFF, and this checks out as a plus-matchup.
I consider this prebuilt prop as an avenue to grab better odds than the -295 San Fran Moneyline and McCaffrey’s -160 odds to score an anytime touchdown available via DraftKings. Of course, it's definitely worth highlighting the traditional parlay odds would be +118 if that option was available.
Where to Bet on NFL Touchdown Prop Picks
Week 10 NFL touchdown prop picks made 11/11/2022 at 1 p.m. ET.
Related Articles
