Vikings vs. Bills Picks, Predictions Week 10: Can Minnesota Contain a Limited Allen?
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen will be active for Week 10 despite an injury suffered last week. Will it be enough to take down the 7-1 Minnesota Vikings? Read on for our top Vikings-Bills NFL picks.
Although he may not be at 100%, Allen is fully expected to be under center in Week 10. This development has helped the spread swing back heavily in favor of the Bills.
Here are our best picks and predictions for the Week 10 matchup between the Vikings and Bills (odds via PointsBet and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our NFL picks for Week 10, along with our best bets and touchdown scorer props.
Vikings vs. Bills Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 13, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Weather: 36 degrees, 33% chance of precipitation, 13-mph W wind
Vikings vs. Bills Odds
Vikings vs. Bills Odds Analysis
Over the past week, we have seen a great deal of movement in this spread. The look-ahead line of Bills -9.5 was lowered to Bills -8.5 following Buffalo's Week 9 loss to the New York Jets. Following the announcement of Allen's elbow injury, the spread steadily dropped from Bills -8.5 to Bills -3.5 as of Thursday morning.
The total has also decreased following the announcement of Allen's injury. The Over/Under opened at 47 but now stands at 43.5, down by 3.5 points.
Vikings vs. Bills Picks
Vikings vs. Bills ATS Pick
Bills -3.5 (-107) ★★★
All week, there has been speculation as to whether Allen will play on Sunday. Although Keenum has not been officially announced as the starting quarterback, the movement in the line from Bills -8.5 to Bills -3.5 tells us everything we need to know.
Therefore, the next question is, has the spread been overcorrected to reflect the fact that Allen will not be playing? I believe the answer is yes, as the Bills are now 3.5-point favorites following the drop of six points from the look-ahead line.
Keenum is an excellent backup quarterback and he will be motivated by revenge against the Vikings. Even with Keenum under center, I make the Bills 4.5-point favorites over the Vikings, so I am more than comfortable laying the 3.5 points.
Vikings vs. Bills O/U Pick
Under 43.5 (-107) ★★★
There is no doubt that the Allen injury news has contributed to some movement in this line, but it is not the only factor. Weather is also expected to play a significant role in Orchard Park on Sunday.
Highmark Stadium will experience cold weather on Sunday, with temperatures reaching 36 degrees and the possibility of snow. In addition to the snow, we expect wind to have an impact as well.
Since Keenum is most likely the starting quarterback and the weather is an issue, I anticipate the Bills to lean on their defense against the Vikings, which is why I favor the Under of 43.5.
Vikings vs. Bills Prop Pick
Bills to win by 1-13 points (+140) ★★★★
I actually prefer this bet over Bills -3.5 on the spread. Since the weather is likely to be an issue, as well as the possibility of a backup quarterback starting for Buffalo, I do not expect the Bills to win by more than 13 points.
By backing the Bills on this prop, you also eliminate the problem of the hook on the line of Bills -3.5 being your enemy. In this case, there are unique circumstances, and it is worth taking the risk of the Bills winning by more than 13 points and then losing if you open up the possibility of cashing the ticket if they win by one to three points.
Where to Bet on Vikings-Bills Picks
Vikings-Bills picks made 11/10/2022 at 8:51 a.m. ET
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