Our Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions for Week 11 are calling for a rebound showing from the Buffalo Bills quarterback, and they're based on the best NFL odds.
It’s been a tough week for the Bills, and they fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey following another devastating loss characterized by quarterback Josh Allen’s reckless play. Buffalo has lost two straight and three of its past four to drop to a disappointing 5-5 record and well behind the favorites in the Super Bowl odds.
Will the Bills and Allen get back on track? Though it could be a tall task against a quality Jets defense, we’re banking on a revival from the talented gunslinger in Week 11.
Check out our NFL Week 11 predictions and Week 11 best bets, along with our Week 11 NFL props to accompany our best Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions for the Jets vs. Bills Week 11 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions for Week 11
- Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+102 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Allen longest completion Under 35.5 yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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Josh Allen player props
Allen Under 0.5 interceptions (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I’m diving directly at the elephant in the room. Josh Allen has thrown at least one interception in six straight games, with his general carelessness ultimately contributing to the firing of OC Ken Dorsey.
Buffalo ranks eighth in the NFL in points per game but fired its offensive coordinator. That’s got to be a sobering reality for a quarterback. Acknowledging that Allen threw three costly interceptions in the season-opening loss to the Jets, I look for him to turn it around and play his sharpest game of the season after Dorsey’s dismissal.
He’s only had two games all season in which he did not throw an interception, but the plus-money odds combined with the ramifications of the coaching change should allow for value here. The best values on this prop come from DraftKings (+130) and bet365 (+120).
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Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+102 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Even amid the struggles and scrutiny this season, Josh Allen has cleared this prop passing line for passing touchdowns in six of his 10 games this season. Considering the plus-money odds we’re getting for a feat he’s accomplished in more than half of his games, we like this value.
The Jets' stingy defense is the complicating factor, as they’ve allowed an average of only 1.0 passing touchdowns per game. But it’s not as though the Jets are funneling the scores toward rushing touchdowns--they only give up 0.6 rushing scores per game.
In a more favorable home environment than he faced against New York in the game at MetLife Stadium, we’re trusting Allen to deliver. DraftKings offers even-money odds on Over 1.5 passing touchdowns, but the best value is the +102 odds we find at Caesars.
Josh Allen longest completion Under 35.5 yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
In his first matchup with the Jets, Allen threw for just 236 yards, with his longest completion registering at 26 yards, his lowest longest-completion mark of the season. While I expect a more consistent version of Allen in this game, that won’t necessarily mean unleashing the deep ball regularly against a ball-hawking Jets defense.
With a line closer to 30.5 yards, I would have been tempted to take the Over. But considering the ability of the New York defense to keep things in front, there’s value on the Under with the line inflated to 35.5 yards. Allen has cleared that line in only four of 10 games.
The best value for Under bettors is DraftKings, which lists the line as high as 35.5 yards with odds as low as -110 on Under. The next-best value is at bet365, with -115 odds on the same line. With a line at 34.5 yards, avoid FanDuel for this Under bet.
Josh Allen player prop picks made 11/18/2023 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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