Jets vs. Vikings Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 5 NFL International Series
In the first NFL International Series game of the season, the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings head to London to play at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
- Minnesota has the seventh-shortest Super Bowl odds in the NFL, which is why we're backing them in our Jets vs. Vikings prediction
- Sam Darnold continues to be one of the best QBs in the NFL this season and is among the NFL MVP odds favorites
- The Jets are coming off an outright loss as an 8.5-point favorite against the Denver Broncos
Our Week 5 NFL predictions expect Minnesota to show up across the pond, thanks in part to Aaron Jones, who we highlighted in our Jets vs. Vikings player prop bet.
Jets vs. Vikings odds movement
Minnesota opened as 2.5-point favorite at our Super Bowl betting sites. While the line has seen some slight movement, it's settled in with the Vikings -2.5.
The Vikings have 71% of the money on them covering, with just 29% on the Jets. The Over has 53% of the money, with the total hovering around 40.5.
Best Jets vs. Vikings picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Vikings -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Jets ⭐⭐⭐
- Aaron Rodgers prop pick: Longest pass completion Under 35.5 yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jets vs. Vikings against the spread prediction: Week 5
Vikings to cover the spread: -2.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Jets vs. Vikings opening odds:
- Jets: +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Vikings: -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Aaron Rodgers took a beating last week
At 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles, Rodgers cannot continue to take the shots he took last week. The Broncos sacked Rodgers five times and hit him 14 times in total while pressuring him on one out of every three dropbacks.
New York’s pass protection had been a strength through the first three weeks, allowing five sacks total. But Denver figured out how to attack the Jets offensive line, and that should have the blitz-happy Vikings under defensive coordinator Brian Flores salivating.
Rodgers announced on the Pat McAfee Show that his knee is swollen this week, which is not a good sign when preparing to face one of the league’s best defenses.
Sam Darnold’s historic start
Sam Darnold has a 7-1 TD-INT ratio over the last two weeks and is the only quarterback in the league with 11 touchdown passes. Darnold is one of seven quarterbacks to go 4-0 with 10 or more passing touchdowns in their first four starts with a franchise in NFL history, and he has led the Vikings to their first 4-0 start since 2016.
Darnold has established an instant connection with wideout Justin Jefferson, who became the first Vikings player with a touchdown reception in each of the first four games of a season since Randy Moss in 2004. And Jordan Addison also was heavily involved last week, becoming the first Minnesota wide receiver with a rushing touchdown and receiving touchdown in a single game since Adam Thielen in 2019.
Vikings defense should bounce back
Minnesota allowed 465 yards to Green Bay last week, a season-high. However, the Vikings also forced a season-high four turnovers and, despite the 29 points allowed, still rank fifth in scoring defense.
Not only was the Jets offensive line poor in pass protection last week, but running back Breece Hall finished with four rushing yards on 10 carries. Hall was stopped for no gain or a loss six times and was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 70% of his runs.
Most of our best sports betting apps align with this 2.5-point spread and charge more in juice to back the favorites (DraftKings is much higher at -118). Through BetMGM’s -110 odds, a winning $10 wager would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Jets vs. Vikings prop pick for Week 6
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Aaron Rodgers longest pass completion Under 35.5 yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Before Week 4 against the Packers, the Vikings defense had allowed their fewest points through three games (30) since 1988. In that span, Minnesota blitzed on 41% of dropbacks (the second-highest rate in the league) and had not allowed a top-12 fantasy quarterback or wide receiver.
The blitz-heavy Vikings are likely to force the ball out of Rodgers’ hands early and often, and New York’s receivers do not have the game-breaking speed to hit this Over with mostly yards after the catch. Rodgers has stayed under this projected total in three of the first four games, with only Allen Lazard catching a 36-yard touchdown in Week 1.
Thus, there is value with BetMGM’s -110 odds, considering the implied probability for Rodgers to complete zero passes of 36 or more yards is 53.49% based on bet365’s -115 odds.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
Jets vs. Vikings odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Jets vs. Vikings game info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 6
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
- How to watch: NFL Network
- Weather: 64 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph SW
- Favorite: Vikings -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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