Jaguars vs. Jets Week 16 NFL Picks: Wilson To Get the Best Of Lawrence

The Toilet Bowl matchup of Week 16 features the Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the New York Jets in a game that only matters for draft positioning. Read on for our Jaguars-Jets picks.

There will be plenty of good seats available Sunday in New Jersey as the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets play out the string of yet another lost season for each downtrodden franchise. However, we'll get to see the top two picks from this year’s draft face off. 

The Jaguars lead the all-time series 8-7, including one playoff matchup (no, really). The clubs last clashed in 2019.

Here are my Jaguars-Jets picks and predictions for this Week 16 NFL matchup (odds via FanDuel, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Jaguars vs. Jets Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 26, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJWeather: Sunshine and clouds mixed, high of 43. Winds NW at 10-to-20 mph.

Jaguars vs. Jets Odds Analysis

This line opened at Jets -1 pretty much across the board. But it's now New York -2.5 everywhere other than DraftKings, which lists the Jets at -3. The Jets haven't been favored since Oct. 1, 2020. New York is 3-7 straight up and 2-8 against the spread over its past 10 contests as a favorite.

The total has ticked up a half-point from 41.5 to 42.

Jaguars vs. Jets Picks

Jets -2.5 (-110) ??Over 42 (-110) ??

SEE ALSO: Hidden Value for the Top Pick of the 2022 NFL Draft

Jaguars vs. Jets Predictions

Jets -2.5 (-110)

Jacksonville has lost 15 straight road contests, with those defeats coming by an average of 13 points.

Some handicappers believe in the interim coach kick, but Jacksonville definitely didn’t get that on Sunday after Urban Meyer was fired last week, as the Jags lost at home to the Texans 30-16. But there was one notable difference with Meyer gone: The team actually used running back James Robinson, who received 18 carries. For whatever reason, Meyer didn’t like Robinson.

Meanwhile, New York lost its third straight game on Sunday, dropping one 31-24 to Miami after leading 17-7. Zach Wilson wasn’t very accurate while going just 13-of-23 passing for 170 yards, but he at least didn’t throw an interception. The Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is tied for the most picks in the league with 14, while Wilson has registered 11 over just 10 games.

Believe it or not, no Jets cornerback had recorded an interception yet this season until Brandin Echols picked off Tua Tagovailoa and returned it for a score Sunday. That was about the extent of the good news for a defense that allowed 183 yards to the 31st-ranked rushing offense.

Safety Elijah Riley was stretchered off during that game with a neck injury and has been diagnosed with a concussion, though head coach Robert Salah said he "checked out fine." He'll likely miss this game.

Over 42 (-110)

I don’t trust either rookie quarterback much, but I trust each defense less.

The Jets' unit ranks last while allowing 30.6 points per game, and Jacksonville ranks 28th while giving up 26.4. The atrocious Texans just hung 30 on the Jags.

On the other side of the ball, there could be a different look to the Jags’ offense this week, as interim head coach Darrell Bevell is turning over offensive play-calling responsibilities to passing game coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. The Jaguars haven’t scored more than 23 points in a game yet. They're last in the NFL in scoring (14 points per game), and Jacksonville ranks 27th in passing, 23rd in rushing, and 30th in third-down conversions.

Seattle featured a pass-happy offense last year when Schottenheimer was the offensive coordinator there. Russell Wilson finished with career highs in completion percentage and touchdown passes. The Jaguars haven’t logged a touchdown pass in three straight games, and they've tallied just one over their past seven. Lawrence has thrown only nine TD tosses this season.

It’s shocking how bad Lawrence has looked, though Wilson has been worse in most areas. The Jets are averaging 1.35 points per drive with Wilson under center and 2.19 points with anyone else at QB. Only Houston’s Davis Mills has produced a worse Pro Football Focus passing grade than Wilson.

But both defenses are so bad that even these struggling offenses can still push the final number over this small total, with a 24-21 Jets win feeling very possible. The total has gone Over in seven of the Jets’ past 11 games against teams with a losing record, and those contests ended with a combined average score of 53.5 points.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Jaguars-Jets picks made 12/21/2021 at 7:27 p.m. ET