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Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Picks, Predictions Wild Card Weekend: Bills Massive Favorites Over Dolphins

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 15, 2023 6:19 AM EST • 2 min 43 sec read.

Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills caches a touchdown pass over Jonathan Jones of the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on Jan. 08, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York.
Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills caches a touchdown pass over Jonathan Jones of the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on Jan. 08, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images via AFP

Injuries to Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater leave the Miami Dolphins with third-stringer Skylar Thompson at quarterback for Wild Card Weekend. Can they hang with the 13-3 Bills at Orchard Park? Read on for our top Dolphins vs. Bills pick.

The Dolphins sputtered into the playoffs, losing five games in a row before defeating the New York Jets 11-6 in the season-finale to earn the seventh seed. Their reward is a trip to Buffalo to take on a team they've actually played quite well against this year. However, their 2-point win and 3-point loss each came with starting QB Tua Tagovailoa.

The Bills won seven consecutive matchups, three by more than 10 points. They've been favorites of greater than a touchdown nine times this season, and covered the spread in five of those games, including being 14-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here is our best Dolphins vs. Bills NFL Wild Card Weekend pick (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets, Dolphins vs. Bills same-game parlay picks, and Josh Allen player prop picks.

Dolphins vs. Bills Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Jan. 15, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: Orchard Park, NY
  • Weather: 24 degrees, 41% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds Analysis

The Bills opened as 10.5 or 11-point favorites depending on the sportsbook, and while the Dolphins saw some initial support, once Tagovailoa was officially ruled out, the line jumped to 13.5 at the five major books. That has crept up to 14 in a few spots as 68% of bettors favor the Bills to cover against the spread.

The total opened at 44.5, and while it initially went as high as 46.5 at some of the major shops, it's since dropped to 43.5 after Miami announced Skylar Thompson as its starting quarterback. Despite the number drop, 66% of bettors back the Over.

Dolphins vs. Bills Pick

Bills -13.5 vs. Dolphins (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

In Sunday’s first game, the best thing to do is keep it simple. The Dolphins are not a playoff-caliber team without Tagovailoa. The Bills average 28.4 points per game, and while the Phins allow just 23.5 PPG this season, they've let five of their last six opponents score at least 23 points, including two who got more than 30.

With Miami's defense not playing as well as it did earlier this year, and with Thompson under center, there's simply no way the Dolphins will keep up with the Bills. Thompson saw significant playing time in four games this season. He's yet to throw for 200 yards in one contest, and has just one touchdown to three interceptions.

Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is making it seem as though second-stringer Teddy Bridgewater could be ready to play Sunday. It’s hard to believe that, considering he broke the thumb on his throwing hand just two weeks ago. Even if he does play, how effective and accurate could he be?

As a team, the Bills have officially come into their own. They've scored over 30 points in three consecutive games, and won by double-digits in three of their last five. Sunday’s Dolphins team will not be the same one that gave them trouble earlier in the season. 

Dolphins vs. Bills Best Odds

Caesars, PointsBet (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-13.5-13.5-13.5-13.5-13.5
-115-115-115-110-110

Every major sportsbook now offers this spread at -13.5, with DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM increasing the juice required to get that spread.  While it's best to take the number as low as you can with the best odds, it could also be worth catching an alternate spread at 14.5. You can find the price for that number as good as +110 at the major books. You’d go above a key number, but with how mismatched these two teams are you’d only be concerned about a backdoor cover late.

Dolphins vs. Bills pick made 01/13/2023 at 10:19 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.