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Josh Allen Player Prop Picks, Predictions Wild Card Weekend: What Will Allen do in Lopsided Wild-Card Game?

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 14, 2023 10:54 AM EST • 2 min 46 sec read.

Quarterback Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills warms up against the Baltimore Ravens.
Quarterback Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills warms up against the Baltimore Ravens. Rob Carr/Getty Images via AFP.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen threw for 704 yards and six touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins during the regular season. Can he continue that dominance in a game the Bills are expected to win easily? Here are our best Josh Allen player prop picks for Wild Card Weekend based on the top NFL odds.

Despite being 1-1 against the Dolphins this season, Allen put up ridiculous numbers against his division foe. In their first meeting, he threw for 400 yards and two touchdowns, while he went for 304 and four touchdowns in the second contest.

The biggest concern about his stat line heading into Wild Card Weekend is whether the Dolphins will be able to keep the game close enough to force Allen to do what he is more than capable of.

Here are our best Josh Allen player prop picks for the Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Wild Card Weekend matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets, Wild Card Weekend against the spread power rankings, NFL upset picks for the first round of the playoffs, and Wild Card Weekend odds and lines. And make sure to go to our top NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend for links to every preview!

Josh Allen Player Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend

  • Josh Allen -1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Skylar Thompson (+140 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Josh Allen first touchdown scorer (+900 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Josh Allen Under 22.5 completions (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Check out our Dolphins-Bills picks, Giants-Vikings picks, and Ravens-Bengals picks for a look at all of Sunday's Wild Card Weekend action.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

Josh Allen Player Props

Josh Allen -1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Skylar Thompson (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Skylar Thompson has appeared in seven games this season, seeing significant action in four of those contests. He has thrown exactly one touchdown so far. Though he certainly has the weapons around him to score a lot of points, he has not shown signs of being able to utilize those weapons to his benefit.

Therefore, Allen may need to throw only two touchdown passes to hit this prop. This season, he has thrown two touchdown passes in 11 of his 17 games, including both games against the Dolphins. If Thompson does show improvement in this game, that means the Bills will be throwing the ball later into the game than expected. Whether a blowout or a close game, it's good for Allen hitting this prop.

Josh Allen first touchdown scorer (+900) ⭐⭐⭐

The reason why this bet is so enticing - especially at this price - is because the Bills seem like a lock to score the first touchdown in this game. In the four games in which Thompson has seen significant playing time, the Dolphins’ opponent has scored the first touchdown each time (or there was no touchdown at all).

Therefore, if the Bills are able to drive the ball right down the field against the Dolphins, they could very well be looking to Allen on a quarterback keeper to get the ball into the end zone for the game's first score.

It’s very unlikely the Bills get cute with their play-calling in this game, which favors Allen scoring. After all, he did have seven rushing touchdowns this season.

Josh Allen Under 22.5 completions (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Allen completed 26 or more passes in his first three games of the season. Since then, he completed more than 22 passes just four times in 14 games.

When he does complete more than 22 passes, the Bills are involved in a close game. He did so in their 32-29 win over the Dolphins, their 28-25 win over the Detroit Lions, their 33-30 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings, and their 24-20 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Allen has completed at least 25 passes in each game against the Dolphins this season, but both of those games were close. That will not be the case on Sunday.

Josh Allen player prop picks made 1/14/2023 at 9:10 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.