Commanders vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 9: Jones Will Produce Huge Day
Our predictions for the Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots game, supported by the best NFL odds, forecast a strong passing performance from Patriots quarterback Mac Jones.
The New England Patriots, with a 2-6 record, saw their high from a stunning win against the Buffalo Bills fade away, revealing it as an isolated success in an otherwise underwhelming season, and bringing them back to reality.
When they return home to face the Washington Commanders, the Patriots might have the chance to showcase their passing attack, given that Washington's secondary is regarded as one of the league's weakest units, potentially paving the way for a strong aerial performance from Mac Jones.
Check out our NFL Week 9 predictions and NFL best bets, along with our Week 9 NFL props to accompany your best Commanders vs. Patriots prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Commanders vs. Patriots prediction
Mac Jones Over 222.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has been decidedly inconsistent as a passer this season, but Sunday against the Commanders could match the conditions needed to see the New England quarterback thrive. Jones has cleared this week’s line on his passing yardage only three times in eight games on the year, but all three of those occasions in which he was successful came in Patriots’ home games.
The only home game in which Jones did not meet this passing threshold came against the best statistical passing defense of the four teams New England has faced in Foxborough; New Orleans held Jones to 110 passing yards in keeping with its seventh-ranked pass defense.
The Commanders do not boast a top 10 passing defense. In fact, the Washington defense isn’t even top 25. It’s barely top 30. The Commanders rank 29th in the NFL, allowing 256.8 passing yards per game.
Over the past five weeks, Washington has allowed every opposing starting quarterback it has faced to eclipse 275 passing yards. Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts accomplishing it twice in that span was probably expected. Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields, New York Giants QB Tyrod Taylor, and Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder, all putting up big numbers against the Commanders' secondary, is cause to send up a smoke flare. At his current lines at our best sportsbooks, Mac Jones is a strong value for passing volume in Week 9.
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Commanders vs. Patriots best odds
FanDuel: Mac Jones Over 222.5 passing yards (-114)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones Over 223.5 passing yards | Jones Over 222.5 passing yards | Jones Over 223.5 passing yards | Jones Over 223.5 passing yards | Jones Over 223.5 passing yards |
| -115 | -114 | -115 | -117 | -110 |
As of Friday morning, Jones’ prop could be found at 218.5 yards across our recommended sportsbooks. The line jumped to 223.5 at most of our best sportsbooks on Friday afternoon.
As of this writing, FanDuel offers a slight edge on the odds with -114 odds on Over 222.5 passing yards. We’ll consider Jones' prop a three-star recommendation for 229.5 passing yards
Commanders vs. Patriots odds
Commanders vs. Patriots odds analysis
The Patriots opened as 2.5-point favorites and have remained at that line at some of our best sportsbooks while moving to -3 at other of our best betting sites. 45% of wagers have come in on New England.
The total opened at 39 and increased to 40.5 and 41 across our recommended sportsbooks. Only 34% of wagers have come in on the Over.
Commanders vs. Patriots game info
- When: Sunday, Nov. 5, at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- How to watch: FOX
Weather: 57 Degrees, 9 mph Winds, 1% Precipitation
Commanders-Patriots prediction made Friday at 3:40 p.m. ET
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