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We offer our Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction and Super Bowl picks.
Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce makes a catch against the Buffalo Bills. Photo by Denny Medley via Imagn Images

We're exactly one week away from seeing the Kansas City Chiefs battle the Philadelphia Eagles at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX) in Super Bowl 59.

Those backing the underdog Eagles straight up, which as of today is the most popular bet at BetMGM, will hope more news over the next week that negatively impacts Patrick Mahomes - like the Luka Doncic to Los Angeles Lakers deal - occurs. 

However, our Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction and Super Bowl picks don't expect anything to derail the unflappable Chiefs quarterback. The picks below are part of our Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl predictions

Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction: Feb. 2 

Here are our NFL picks for the Super Bowl with confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

  • Best pick: Travis Kelce Over 60.5 receiving yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Against the spread pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Who will win the Super Bowl: Chiefs

Sunday's best Super Bowl pick

Travis Kelce Over 60.5 yards

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Kelce struggled in both games against the Buffalo Bills this season, including in the AFC Championship. I don't see the same thing recurring in New Orleans against a V͏ic Fa͏ngio defense, which prioritizes preventing longer-range, explosive passing plays. Mahomes should be able to find Kelce on shorter and quicker routes more frequently. 

In the NFC Championship, Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz carved the Eagles up for 104 yards on 11 receptions. Kelce's 19-yard output against the Bills was the first time he had less than 71 receiving yards in the last 15 playoff games. Kelce amassed at least 81 receiving yards in his last three Super Bowl appearances. This should be a relatively easy total for Kelce to eclipse. 

Who knows, Kelce might even propose to Taylor Swift after he hits the Over on this prop. That bet is featured in our Swift prop bets

Chiefs vs. Eagles spread prediction

Chiefs to cover the spread -1.5

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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We've waited over 20 years for any team across the sports landscape to win three successive titles. The 2000-02 Los Angeles Lakers were the last team to accomplish the feat. I don't know about you, but the Chiefs' three-peat vibe aura haunts me.

Don't get me wrong, you can easily make a sound argument for the Eagles to win.  

With Philly winning the most popular bet at BetMGM, that argument is gaining more traction than spiked athletic shoes on a running track. I'm not falling it for, though, and here are a few reasons why: 

  • Mahomes is 17-3 in the playoffs. His only losses were against Tom Brady (twice) and Joe Burrow
  • The Chiefs quarterback will increase his Tom Brady vs. Mahome GOAT debate stock with a win
  • This will mark the fifth time coaches will meet in a Super Bowl rematch. The coach that won the first game is 4-0 in the second as Rob Paul broke down in his look at the Chiefs vs. Eagles rematch
  • Mahomes is 7-0 against the spread in the playoffs when the spread is inside of three points
  • The Chiefs are 12-0 this season (including the playoffs) in games decided by eight points or less
  • The Chiefs turned the ball over once in their last nine games, but won the AFC Championship despite losing the turnover battle

A winning $10 bet will profit $9.09. 

Who will win the Super Bowl?

I'm so used to the Chiefs winning in the playoffs with Mahomes at the helm that I can't foresee the contrary occurring. I bet against the Chiefs in the playoffs twice. It took two defeats to learn my lesson.

While the Eagles have a good enough team to halt the Chiefs Super Bowl three-peat bid, Kansas City's unmatched ability to win tight games in the postseason has me convinced. 

Today's Super Bowl odds

Who is favored to win the Super Bowl?

Chiefs (-124 odds via FanDuel)

There's been almost no line movement across the board since the day after the AFC and NFC Championship games. FanDuel has the best moneyline odds (-124), a marginally better price than the -125 bet365 and Caesars are offering. At -130, BetMGM and DraftKings have the shortest odds and the worst price for bettors. 

A winning $10 bet at -124 will profit $8.06. 

Super Bowl game info

  • Date: Sunday, Feb. 9
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: The Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
  • Favorite: Chiefs -1.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
  • TV: FOX, Fubo (streaming)
  • Halftime show: Kendrick Lamar
  • Anthem: Jon Batiste

Super Bowl betting odds pages

Don't miss our all of our other NFL futures.

Here are our best Super Bowl betting sites:

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