Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: Wild Card Weekend
Buffalo travels to Jacksonville to kick off the Sunday festivities at 1 p.m. ET (ESPN), and I'm diving into my best Bills vs. Jaguars prediction for Wild Card Weekend to get you set.
The Jags come into this one as 1.5-point betting favorites - can they shut down Josh Allen on their own turf at EverBank Stadium? Let's take a look.
🏈 Bills vs. Jaguars prediction: NFL Wild Card Weekend
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this postseason.
| Predictions | Best odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguars ML | -108 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 51.5 | -105 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown | +170 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Bills vs. Jaguars best bet: Jaguars moneyline (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
"But this might be the only time Josh Allen has a run in him with Patrick Mahomes out of the playoffs!" Yea, football doesn't care. The Jaguars are one of the most complete teams in the league, boasting a top-10 pass defense alongside the league's best run-stopping unit. Trevor Lawrence surged up the NFL MVP odds board down the stretch and is playing the best football of his career. It's a different feeling in Jacksonville this year, leading me to believe they might make a deep run.
Score prediction: Jaguars 24, Bills 21
🙌 Best Bills vs. Jaguars touchdown scorer prediction: Trevor Lawrence (+170) ⭐⭐⭐
See all of our NFL touchdown props for the 2026 NFL playoffs.
Lawrence was an absolute dawg this season, running for four touchdowns across as many games to end the year. Averaging over five carries over that span, expect Lawrence to hit pay dirt one more time against a Bills team allowing the opposition to score at a near 60% clip once they enter the red zone. That's good for a bottom-10 red-zone defense.
🎟️ Most-bet games on Wild Card Weekend
| Game | Spread |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears | GB -1.5 |
| Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars | BUF -1.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers | LAR -10.5 |
📊 Bills vs. Jaguars odds: NFL Wild Card Weekend
Our live Bills vs. Jaguars odds update in real time.
📈 Bills vs. Jaguars betting trends: NFL Wild Card Round
| Bills | Statistic | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | W-L record | 13-4 |
| 8-9 | ATS record | 12-5 |
| 9-8 | O/U record | 10-7 |
| 5.9 | Yards per play | 5.2 |
| 5.2 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0 |
| +0.1 | Turnover margin | +0.8 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
🚑 Bills vs. Jaguars latest injuries
🌤️ Bills vs. Jaguars weather: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
There's a slight chance of rain in Jacksonville, according to nflweather.com, but overall, sportsbooks don't seem to expect the weather to factor into this AFC wild-card matchup.
This game has the highest total of the Wild Card Round, with the best sports betting sites offering between 51.5 and 52.5 points.
Our NFL weather report for Wild Card Weekend has more.
📺 How to watch Bills vs. Jaguars: NFL Wild Card Weekend
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, FL.)
- TV: ESPN
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