Skip to main content

Bills vs. Bengals Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 9: Sunday Night Football

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 5, 2023 3:11 PM EST • 4 min 3 sec read.

Cincinnati ended Buffalo's 2023 campaign during the divisional round, and now the Bills are seeking revenge as we present our top predictions for the Bills vs. Bengals Sunday Night Football matchup, all backed by the best available NFL odds from our best sports betting apps..

The Buffalo Bills, who initially produced a lackluster 4-3 record, their worst start since 2018, made a notable resurgence by securing a crucial victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. This win not only revitalized their campaign but also demonstrated their ability to compete at a high level. Their resilience in close contests is evident as they've been involved in five games decided by a single possession, holding a 2-3 record in such matchups.

On the other hand, the Cincinnati Bengals continued their dominance in the NFC West by achieving a convincing 31-17 road victory against the San Francisco 49ers, successfully completing their divisional sweep. However, the Bengals have encountered challenges while facing non-NFC West teams this season, maintaining a 0-3 record when competing against AFC opponents. This indicates that while they excel within their division, they need to improve their performance against teams from other divisions to further solidify their playoff chances.

In conjunction with our Bills-Bengals player props and Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow props, here is our best Bills-Bengals prediction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Bengals prediction: Sunday Night Football

Bengals -2.5 alternate spread (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cincinnati started 1-2 this season, and a lot of those early season struggles were due to a calf injury that quarterback Joe Burrow suffered in the preseason. After Week 3, Burrow had a 38 Total QBR, averaged 6.1 air yards per attempt, had a -4.5% Completion Percentage Over Expected, and was off target on 19% of his throws. From 2020-2022, Burrow averaged a 57 Total QBR, 7.6 air yards per attempt, a +4.2% CPOE, and was off target on 12% of his throws.

The Bengals coaching staff protected him so much through the injury that in Week 3, they ran 51 of 56 plays out of shotgun formation (tied for the fourth-most in Burrow’s career) to have him avoid dropping back far to pass. However, Burrow looks much more healthy, given that his completion percentage in Week 8 was 17.8% above expected (the best in his career, per Next Gen Stats), and his improvement has coincided with Cincinnati’s best stretch of football.

Facing the 5-3 Bills plays right into Cincinnati’s wheelhouse. Against teams two or more games over .500 over the previous two seasons (including playoffs), the Bengals are an NFL-best 6-0 (1st), have held those opponents to an NFL-best 16.8 points per game, rank second in Defensive Efficiency (64), and have the third-best red zone percentage (36%).

Cincinnati's defensive performance against the 49ers was marked by forcing three turnovers, continuing the Bengals' impressive streak of eight takeaways in the last three games, a significant improvement from the five turnovers the team forced in the first four games of the season. The Bengals have also demonstrated a strong pass rush, with 10 or more quarterback pressures in six games during 2023, ranking them among the top teams in this category. These factors make the Bengals a solid four-star play, as it's expected that Josh Allen, who's produced the most turnovers (53) over the previous three seasons, will contribute turnovers and bolster Cincinnati's chances of success.

Not intended for use in MA Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Visit our Google News page and click "Follow" (⭐) for the latest odds, picks and news!  

Bills vs. Bengals best odds

bet365 (-125)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
-2.5-2.5N/A-2.5-2.5
-126-128N/A-127-125

All of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the Bengals as 3-point home favorites, and while Caesars and bet365 offer +100 odds to back them at that number, the alternate spread and laying less than a field goal is more enticing.

There is a chance that the spread could move off the key number in Buffalo’s favor before kickoff, so we would not put anyone off waiting to see if any -2.5s spring up throughout the week, as one would get a better price on that regular point spread than compared to the alternate line.

Bills vs. Bengals odds for Sunday Night Football

Bills vs. Bengals odds analysis

Cincinnati backers missed the best number if they waited until now to make their wagers, as our best sports betting sites had it as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday night soon after the result of the Bengals beating the 49ers was known. However, the line movement to -3 was likely a mix of public and sharp action, as 71% of early point spread wagers have backed the favorites, even though Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.

Our best sportsbooks are in unison with an O/U of 48.5 points, and only FanDuel is juiced to one side (-115 to back the Over). The total has increased at all shops throughout the week, from opening numbers of 47 at most of our sites with the best sportsbook promos and BetMGM slightly higher at 47.5. This has been a case of reverse line movement, as early betting splits are 60/40 in support of the Under. The Under has cashed in the last four meetings between these teams dating back to 2016.

Sunday Night Football game info

  • When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Weather: 62 degrees, 33% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph WSW

Bills-Bengals prediction made 10/31/2023 at 6:09 a.m. ET

NFL betting odds pages

Super Bowl OddsNFL Defensive Rookie of the Year OddsNFL Sacks Leader Odds
NFL MVP OddsNFL Comeback Player of the Year OddsNFL Best Record Odds
NFL Offensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Passing Yards OddsNFL Worst Record Odds
NFL Defensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Rushing Yards OddsNFL Win Totals Odds
NFL Coach of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Receiving Yards OddsNFL Draft Odds
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Check out our best NFL betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”