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Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws a pass as make our NFL picks against the spread for Week 9.
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws a pass. Photo Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images.

Despite their 4-4 record, the Indianapolis Colts have the best against the spread (ATS) record (7-1) entering Week 9. At the other end of the spectrum sit the Carolina Panthers, whose 1-7 ATS record is a league-worst. 

  • The Detroit Lions have the second-best ATS record (6-1), and the Super Bowl odds favorite Kansas City Chiefs are 4-2-1 ATS
  • Away teams are 66-53-4 ATS, and favorites are 64-55-4
  • Away favorites are 27-16-2, and away underdogs are 39-37-2

After a 10-6 Week 8, our NFL ATS picks since Week 4 are 46-29. Let's see what we can cook up with another compelling docket of games on tap. 

NFL ATS picks Week 9: Every game

NFL odds via FanDuel and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

MatchupPickConfidence
Texans vs. Jets (-1.5)Texans (+1.5)⭐⭐⭐⭐
Patriots vs. Titans (-3.5)Patriots (+3.5)⭐⭐⭐
Saints (-7) vs. PanthersSaints* (if Carr plays) (-7) ⭐⭐⭐
Broncos vs. Ravens (-9.5)Broncos (+9.5)⭐⭐⭐
Raiders vs. Bengals (-7.5)Bengals (-7.5) ⭐⭐⭐
Chargers (-1.5) vs. Browns Chargers (-1.5)⭐⭐⭐⭐
Dolphins vs. Bills (-6.5)Bills (-6.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cowboys vs. Falcons (-2.5)Falcons (-2.5)⭐⭐⭐
Commanders (-3.5) vs. Giants Commanders (-3.5)⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bears vs. Cardinals (-1.5)Bears (+1.5)⭐⭐⭐
Jaguars vs. Eagles (-7)Jaguars (+7)⭐⭐⭐
Rams (-1.5) vs. Seahawks Rams (-1.5)⭐⭐⭐⭐
Lions (-3.5) vs. PackersLions (-3.5)⭐⭐⭐⭐
Colts vs. Vikings (-5.5)Vikings (-5.5)⭐⭐⭐⭐
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs (-9.5)Buccaneers (+9.5)⭐⭐⭐

My favorite ATS picks this week

NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Rams (-1.5) vs. Seahawks 

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

Puka Nacua celebrates after the Los Angeles Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings as we offer our Week 9 ATS picks. 
Puka Nacua celebrates after the Los Angeles Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football. Photo by Gary A. Vasquez via Imagn 

It has been a dark and desolate journey for the Los Angeles Rams on the injury front. However, light is finally piercing through the pinhole at the end of the tunnel.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned in the Rams' 30-20 Week 8 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, and Kyren Williams inserted himself as a top-10 Offensive Player of the Year odds favorite after his touchdown and 116-yard haul in prime time on Thursday night. 

With Williams performing at the peak of his powers and Nacua and Kupp back up to speed, the Rams are significantly better offensively than their 22nd ranking at PFF suggests.

The Seattle Seahawks, meanwhile, are spiraling the other way after losing 31-20 to the Seattle Seahawks, their fourth loss in the last five.  

Lions (-3.5) vs. Packers 

Best odds: +100 via bet365 | Implied probability: 50%

Jordan Love injured his groin in the Green Bay Packers' 30-27 Week 8 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. I highly doubt that injury will prevent him from suiting up against their bitter NFC North-rival Lions, especially with the division lead at stake.  

That said, one has to wonder whether Love will have full mobility.

Even if he plays and is moving like an effervescent youth, the Lions have been exceptional all season, even recently without former Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite Aidan Hutchinson.

The Lions are 6-1 ATS and Jared Goff, one of the MVP odds favorites, is quietly staking his claim for the coveted honor. 

Also, I backed the Packers in Weeks 7 and 8, falling just shy both times. I'm not going to make the same mistake a third time. A winning $10 bet will profit $10. 

Texans (+1.5) vs. Jets ❌

Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%

Though the Stefon Diggs injury news is inarguably bad for the Houston Texans, they shouldn't require his services to keep things close against the New York Jets. The Jets continually get favorable spreads despite their 2-6 straight-up and ATS record. 

Aaron Rodgers is as banged up at this stage of the season as you'd expect from a returning 40-year-old. Though his hamstring and knee hurt most, I'm sure every muscle, along with his perplexed brain, ails when he drags himself out of bed each morning.  

Houston is only 3-5 ATS. However, most of those ATS losses came as favorites. And I simply can't back a team that, even after the addition of Davante Adams, failed to beat the New England Patriots. 

A winning $10 bet will profit $9.26.

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