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AFC East Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for All Teams

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: August 31, 2023 2:43 PM EDT • 3 min 57 sec read.

After providing picks for each of the four teams that make up the exceptionally talented AFC East, we turn our attention to the division itself. Check out our AFC East betting preview based on the best NFL odds.

The Buffalo Bills were once again the class of the AFC East last season, winning the division for the third straight year.

Meanwhile, the promising New York Jets stumbled to a 7-10 record and last-place finish thanks to subpar quarterback play. However, there's a new sheriff in town.

Can Aaron Rodgers lead the Jets to the top of the AFC East? Will the Bills own the division for the fourth straight year? Or will the Miami Dolphins emerge as the team to beat?

Check out our 2023 AFC East betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

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AFC East betting preview 2023

Miami Dolphins to win AFC East (+300) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Thursday, Aug. 31)

Team to win divisionDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Bills+120+120+120+125 🔥+120
Jets+270 🔥+250+250+250+240 ❄️
Dolphins+300+290 ❄️+300+300+300
Patriots+800+800+800+800+800

This bet, as well as most Dolphins futures, comes down to Tua Tagovailoa's ability to stay on the field. The Dolphins were one of the best teams in the NFL before injuries caught up with their quarterback. They went 8-1 in the first nine games that Tua started last season.

I'm projecting the Dolphins to finish with around 10 wins, which would make winning the division a bit tricky (though I believe the Bills and Jets will also finish around that number). We're really betting on Miami's ceiling with this pick.

With a healthy Tua, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and the running back duo of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., the Dolphins could very well finish the 2023 campaign as the best offense in football. Additionally, a defense that struggled down the stretch last season should benefit from another offseason with Mike McDaniel's coaching staff.

As outlined in our Bills betting preview, I'm betting on Buffalo to finish second in the division. The Jets offer another enticing option in this market, but I'll take the extra 30 points of value on a Dolphins team with a ceiling as high as New York's.

All three of DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 offer the Dolphins to win the division at this price. Basically, just avoid BetMGM.

Tua Tagovailoa to lead AFC East in passing yards (+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

(Odds as of Thursday, Aug. 31)

DraftKingsFanDuel
+350+290

Once again, we're banking on Tua staying on the field for more games than he managed last year. The thought process is that McDaniel believes Tua is the Dolphins' franchise quarterback, and the coaching staff will have hopefully spent this past offseason preparing its signal-caller to better avoid physical punishment. Could that be total nonsense? Absolutely. But let's dive into the numbers, anyway.

NumberFire, which assumes players will take the field for all 17 games, projects Tua to finish with 4,460.31 passing yards, the fifth-highest total among all quarterbacks. ESPN's Mike Clay accounts for two missed games with his projection, but he still has Tua at 3,886 passing yards.

Meanwhile, NumberFire projects Bills quarterback Josh Allen to finish with 4,555.30 passing yards this season, and Clay has him at 4,179 passing yards. Allen is -130 at DraftKings to lead the AFC East in passing, an appropriate number given his projections.

However, we're betting on Tua because of the value. DraftKings has Rodgers at +250 despite the fact that NumberFire projects Rodgers to finish with 4,098.44 passing yards this season.

Therefore, based on the fact that Tua's 17-game projection is less than 100 yards below Allen's and nearly 400 yards more than Rodgers', this +350 price at DraftKings provides us with great value, especially compared to FanDuel's number.

Tua also has two of the best wide receivers in football to throw to, one of which I picked to win AFC Offensive Player of the Year in my Dolphins betting preview.

Buffalo Bills to be last undefeated team (+800 via Caesars) ⭐⭐

Buffalo should get off to a strong start this season, with a road game in Week 1 against the Jets proving to be one of the only real early tests. The Bills then have seven very winnable games following that before a Week 9 affair with the Cincinnati Bengals.

If the Jets come out of the gates slow with Rodgers, the Bills could very well march their way to an 8-0 start. Following Week 1, they have home games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers along with road contests at the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots.

AFC East team to win Super Bowl (+400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

(Odds as of Thursday, Aug. 31)

DraftKingsBetMGMCaesars
+380+400+350

We're betting on the strength of what I believe to be the NFL's best division with this pick. Three of the consensus top 10 teams via Super Bowl odds at our best sports betting apps reside in the AFC East, the most any division features.

As is the case with any Super Bowl bet, there's always the risk that the Kansas City Chiefs ruin this for us, which is why bet365 lists the AFC West as the favorite in this market. However, similar to our other bets, this one is about the number.

If you're going to bet on the AFC West, then you may as well just bet on the Chiefs. Similarly, if you're considering a bet on the NFC East, you're probably better off taking the Philadelphia Eagles, whose odds are much longer at our best sports betting sites than the +380 available for the division.

When it comes to the AFC East, having three true contenders available makes this group bet more appealing than riding with any single team. The fact that the division isn't favored is even better for us.

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.