Michigan State vs. Mississippi State Prediction & March Madness Odds: Spartans to Limit Smith
NCAA Tournament action kicks off with an exciting battle between No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, and we're offering our top Michigan State vs. Mississippi State prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
The Michigan State Spartans (No. 9, 19-14) go up against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (No. 8, 21-13) in a matchup between two Power Five programs.
Michigan State managed three Quad 1 wins this season, but the Spartans also struggled against a number of very average Big 10 teams.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State pulled off a shocking upset against Tennessee to win the SEC Tournament. That marked the Bulldogs' second win over the second-seed Volunteers this season.
However, much like the Spartans, the Bulldogs face question marks following a surprising loss to the Southern Jaguars.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Michigan State vs. Mississippi State prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Michigan State vs. Mississippi State odds
Michigan State (9) vs. Mississippi State (8) prediction: West Region
Tolu Smith Under 13.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel
Smith is averaging 15.2 points per game but has scored 14 or fewer points in six consecutive games. He scored 8, 8, and 10 in his three games in the SEC Tournament.
The Spartans are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They’re 14th in the nation in points allowed from two-pointers (30.6) and holding opponents to just 41.2% from the floor, which is 34th best nationwide.
Smith has excelled against weak defensive teams. Five of his six 20-point games this season have come against teams ranked 220th or worse in points allowed per game, and three of those performances came against teams ranked 340th or worse.
This will be a physical, low-scoring game, and that will be problematic for Smith. Because of many missed shots, he should end up pulling down plenty of rebounds, but he’s going to struggle to score.
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Michigan State vs. Mississippi State best odds
FanDuel (-114)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Under 13.5 points | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | -114 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
The only sportsbook offering this prop right now is FanDuel. We wouldn’t play this prop any lower than 13.5, as this is already just a three-star play. However, there is no rush to get in on it.
If one of our other best sportsbooks releases a line of 14.5 and you can get the under for -120 or better, we recommend taking it, as Smith hasn’t topped that mark in March. And the Spartans are about to be the best defense he has faced this month.
Michigan State vs. Mississippi State spread & Over/Under analysis
The Spartans opened as 1.5-point favorites at our best sports betting sites, and the spread has stayed that way in the early going. Bettors are split on this matchup: 52% back the Spartans and 48% back the Bulldogs. There is unlikely to be much movement in this game, and the spread will stay between 1 and 2 all week.
The total for this contest opened at 130.5. It has dropped to 130 at three of our best sports betting apps. Bettors are slightly backing the under right now, with 54% expecting a low-scoring affair. Both teams average over 73 points per game, but they’re defensively sound, we expect this total to drop.
Michigan State vs. Mississippi State game info
- When: Thursday, March 21st
- Tip-off: 12:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
- How to watch: CBS
Michigan State vs. Mississippi State prediction made Monday at 9:44 a.m. ET.
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