March Madness Bracket Predictions & South Region Preview: Sleepers, Upsets & NCAA Tournament Favorites

 Each team in the South Region will have to pull off two wins to reach the Sweet 16 in Dallas, and we offer our March Madness bracket predictions and South Region preview based on the best March Madness odds.

The Houston Cougars are the No. 1 seed in the South Region and, according to the March Madness odds, are among the favorites to win the big dance 

Under head coach Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars are making their sixth NCAA Tournament appearance, securing a No. 1 seed for the second consecutive season. They are widely regarded as the favorites to win the South Region and boast the second-shortest Final Four odds.

Houston must navigate a difficult path to reach the Final Four in Phoenix, needing to win four games against tough opponents in the South region. The region features formidable teams like No. 2 seed Marquette, No. 3 seed Kentucky, and No. 4 seed Duke, all of which were ranked in the top six in the AP Poll at various points this season.  

Apart from the prominent programs, the South region highlights other intriguing teams. 11th-seeded NC State is on a remarkable run after winning the ACC Tournament. 7th-seeded Florida boasts one of the nation's top offenses, while 12th-seeded James Madison is poised to upset 5th-seeded Wisconsin. Despite Houston's favoritism to win the region, the competition is expected to be fierce.  

As part of our March Madness predictions, here are our March Madness bracket predictions and South Region preview (college basketball picks based on odds from our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

March Madness South Region odds 2024

Here are the odds to win the South Region via FanDuel.

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March Madness South Region picks

• Oakland vs. Kentucky
• NC State vs. Texas Tech
• Boise State/Colorado vs. Florida
• Western Kentucky vs. Marquette
• Texas A&M vs. Nebraska
• Vermont vs. Duke
• Longwood vs. Houston
• James Madison vs. Wisconsin

March Madness betting odds pages

No. 1 seed: Houston (+140 via DraftKings)

For much of the college basketball season, it's been a three-team race to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. When both Houston and the Purdue Boilermakers slipped up in their conference tournaments, that honor went to the UConn Huskies. Still, the Cougars are one of the best teams in the nation.

Houston has arguably the best defense in the country - ranking second in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, and allowing the fewest points per game (57.0) - while leaning on a veteran lineup. Few teams have a more trustworthy guard duo than Sampson with Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead and Baylor transfer LJ Cryer. Those two are the reason Houston can win the entire tournament and should be able to reach the Final Four.

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Sleeper pick: Florida (7) (+1600 via Caesars)

Among the teams with +1500 odds or longer, Florida is the biggest darling in the South Region. While the Gators came up short against Auburn in the SEC Tournament championship, they put the country on notice with wins over Alabama and Texas A&M to get there. Head coach Todd Golden is in just his second season at the helm since coming over from San Francisco, but he's quickly turned Florida into must-watch basketball. 

Under Golden, the Gators have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They average 85.1 points per game (sixth-most) and rank 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Guards Walter Clayton and Zyon Pullin are two of the most prolific scorers in the SEC and are capable of taking over any game. The two mid-major transfers combined for 32.7 points per game and both shoot over 36% from 3-point range.

What makes Florida so dangerous in the South is its scoring depth. While Clayton and Pullin are the go-to playmakers, both Tyrese Samuel and Will Richard can step up in a pinch. Golden's offense is scary and should be able to make a Sweet 16 run.

Our best sports betting sites have some variance on Florida's odds to win the South - Caesars has the Gators at +1600 while bet365 has them at +1100.

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1st-round upset pick: James Madison (12) vs. Wisconsin (5) (+200 via BetMGM)

A No. 12 seed beating a No. 5 seed is usually one of the most popular upset picks in the NCAA Tournament. It's for good reason, too, with No. 12 seeds beating No. 5 seeds 53 times since 1985. The James Madison Dukes have the opportunity to make it happen for the 54th time with their game against the Wisconsin Badgers in Brooklyn.

The Badgers saved face heading into March Madness with a run to the Big Ten Tournament final, but this is a team that went 6-9 over the final 15 games of the regular season. Wisconsin's got a star guard in AJ Storr, but its defensive issues were clear down the stretch - and they rank just 47th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Meanwhile, the Dukes are a force to be reckoned with and had early season buzz after a road upset of No. 4 Michigan State to start the season.

James Madison has a high-flying offense that puts up the 10th-most points per game in the country (84.4) and has plenty of scoring depth. Leading the charge is guard Terrence Edwards (17.4 points per game), who is poised to put Wisconsin on upset alert.

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Best 1st-round matchup: NC State (11) vs. Texas Tech (6)

A week ago, nobody expected NC State to be playing in the NCAA Tournament, but the Wolfpack wrote their own destiny with five wins in five days to take home the ACC Tournament title and earn a bid. Now they head into the first round against Texas Tech about as hot as any team in the country. However, this is a Red Raiders program that won 11 games in the mighty Big 12 this season and had six wins over teams ranked in the AP Poll.

Both these offenses will come to play with the Wolfpack being led by DJ Horne (16.9 points per game) and the Red Raiders by Pop Isaacs (15.9 points per game).

Expect these teams to light up the scoreboard with their talented guard play, but NC State (+195 via bet365) has the momentum to pull off the upset.

Who will win the South Region?

Houston (1) (+140 via DraftKings)

Though it's a chalk pick, Houston is just too talented to slip up before reaching the Final Four. The Cougars have been one of the three best teams in the country all year and have a defense capable of shutting down any team it faces. Outside of Duke, there's not a team in its half of the South Region that should even make for a competitive game and that clears a smooth path to the Sweet 16.

Having a veteran guard combo like Shead and Cryer should make all the difference for the Cougars. The seniors combined for 28.3 points per game and are a major reason the Cougars rank first in the nation in field-goal percentage allowed (37.9%). There's not a weak point on this defense with it being tops in the country in field goal attempts allowed (49.9), sixth in 2-point percentage allowed (43.4%), and 18th in 3-point percentage allowed (30.0%).

With +140 odds at DraftKings, there's a 41.67% implied probability that the Cougars win the South, according to our odds calculator. Even with the shortest odds to win the region, a $10 bet on Houston would lead to a $14 profit.

Houston is the favorite to go toe to toe with the defending national champion Huskies in the NCAA Tournament final.

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