March Madness Long Shots: Will These Teams Bust Your NCAA Tournament Bracket?

March Madness is the greatest sporting event in the world because of how unpredictable it can be - any program can get hot for a few games and join the long list of Cinderella stories before them. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 14 non-No. 1 seeds to take home the NCAA Tournament title.

So who are this year's best March Madness long shots? We're looking at NCAA Tournament teams that have a legitimate shot of going on a run to win a title - focusing on programs that are 25/1 or longer by the March Madness odds - to find the five bracket-busters to bet before the Selection Sunday bracket reveal.

🎲 Best March Madness long shots before Selection Sunday bracket reveal

🎓 The coach who's done it: St. John's

Rick Pitino may be the greatest coach in college basketball history ... that's not hyperbole. It took him two seasons to turn St. John's from Big East doormat into the conference champions, and he's one of just six active coaches to have won an NCAA Tournament.

Of those six, only Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans and Pitino's Red Storm are set to earn top three seeds in the NCAA Tournament. While there are certainly questions around the ceiling of a team that struggles to shoot as badly as St. John's does at times, this team has the ingredients to make a March run - even Jimmy Fallon is bought in.

St. John's leads the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and ranks top 20 nationally in field goal percentage allowed despite playing in a strong Big East conference. While its offense does lag behind, St. John's has three reliable offensive threats in RJ Luis, Zuby Ejiofor, and Kadary Richmond.

The key to Pitino winning his third tournament title (yes, I'm counting Louisville's vacated title) will be Luis putting on a Kemba Walker-type March Madness performance. If St. John's can win its first-ever NCAA Tournament, a $10 bet at BetMGM pays a $220 profit.

St. John's March Madness odds: +2200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 4.35%

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🗡️ The Quad 1 slayer: Texas Tech

Programs like Auburn, Michigan State, Houston, and Alabama have the most Quad 1 wins this year, with the SEC in general being loaded with them due to the sheer volume of talented teams in the conference. So while a team like Kentucky (+5000) is among the programs with the most Quad 1 wins (11), it also has double-digit Quad 1 losses (10).

Meanwhile, a team like Texas Tech ranks top 10 nationally in Quad 1 wins (nine) and is one of just six programs with eight-plus Quad 1 wins and five or fewer Quad 1 losses. The other teams that fit that bill are Auburn, Michigan State, Houston, Florida, and Duke - they make up five of the seven biggest March Madness odds favorites entering Selection Sunday.

Despite being knocked out of the Big 12 tournament in the semifinal, the Red Raiders have shown an ability to rise the occasion this season with wins over Houston, BYU, Arizona, and Kansas. Grant McCasland's team also has the offensive firepower to take over games - Tech ranks seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Led by JT Toppin and Darrion Williams, both of whom rank top 25 in the country by EvanMiya's player rankings, the Red Raiders can be a mismatch with such a loaded frontcourt and two veterans guards in Chance McMillian and Elijah Hawkins. If that foursome carries Texas Tech to a title, a $10 bet at Caesars pays a $400 profit.

Texas Tech March Madness odds: +4000 via Caesars | Implied probability: 2.44%

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📊 The analytics darling: Gonzaga

Will this be the year Mark Few finally conquers his demons and wins the NCAA Tournament? Gonzaga has been at least a No. 4 seed in 12 different tournaments since 2003-04, but this Bulldogs squad hasn't quite played to the level of Few's past teams.

Still, it took home the West Coast Conference tournament title with a win over St. Mary's, and it posted a 10-3 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams this season. Even with losses to Kentucky, UConn, and UCLA this season taking attention off this Gonzaga squad, it's still ranked highly by the advanced metrics.

KenPom has the Bulldogs sitting No. 9 overall with the ninth-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country and a top-30 defense. EvanMiya has Gonzaga ranked No. 8 overall with a top-10 offense and top-30 defense. Can Few's team prove the analytics correct and outplay its seed?

They certainly have the personnel to go on a run with Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard leading the way. If they can pull it off and the Zags win it all, a $10 bet at DraftKings pays a $550 profit.

Gonzaga March Madness odds: +5500 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 1.79%

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📉 The dangerous underachiever: UConn

A preseason top-five team, UConn was supposed to three-peat this season after Dan Hurley led them to back-to-back NCAA Tournament titles. Instead, Hurley has spent more time yelling at the media and fans than winning important Big East games this season.

But even with the Huskies being a disappointment, I'm not giving up on them just yet. After all, UConn is the team that has historically defied the odds and brought home the NCAA Tournament title to join the ranks of the best March Madness Cinderellas. The last three non-No. 1 or No. 2 seeds to win March Madness are as follows: No. 4 seed UConn (2022-23), No. 7 seed UConn (2013-14), No. 3 seed UConn (2010-11).

If any non-top two seed is going to win the title, it's probably going to be the Huskies ... even if I'm skeptical of that being true, this team still has the goods to put on a show if Hurley doesn't lose his mind first. While UConn doesn't have the same depth its past two championship teams have had, it does have some star power with freshman Liam McNeeley, a proven vet in Alex Karaban, and a lights-out shooter in Solomon Ball.

Can the Huskies prove everyone wrong again and turn a $10 bet at FanDuel into a $1,000 profit? It's hard not to take a shot heading into the tournament.

UConn March Madness odds: +10000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 0.99%

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💤 The Mountain West sleeper: New Mexico

All but two NCAA Tournament champions since expansion in 1985 have come from a high-major conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC). The exceptions are UConn, when it temporarily left the Big East and won as a member of the AAC in 2014, and UNLV when it was a No. 1 seed in 1990 as a member of the Big West.

The last time a non-high-major came close to winning the tournament was in 2022-23 when San Diego State reached the championship game and lost to UConn. What do the Runnin' Rebels and Aztecs have in common? They both currently reside in the Mountain West.

Arguably the best mid-major conference, the Mountain West has quietly been stacked this season with Utah State, Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and, of course, New Mexico - all five programs are ranked in the top 55 by KenPom. While the Lobos fell short in the Mountain West tournament, they're a team no high-major will want to face this March.

Richard Pitino had this team in the tournament last year, and this year he could have New Mexico getting as much attention as his father's St. John's team if he can take the Lobos on a Cinderella run. This group features a deadly combo in Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph, plus a defense that ranks in the top 20 nationally. If New Mexico shocks the world and wins it all, a $10 bet pays a $30,000 profit.

New Mexico March Madness odds: +30000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 0.33%

📅 March Madness key dates

• Selection Sunday: March 16
• First Four: March 18-19
• First round: March 20-21
• Second round: March 22-23
• Sweet 16: March 27-28
• Elite Eight: March 29-30
• Final Four: Saturday, April 5
• National championship game: Monday, April 7

💰 March Madness betting odds pages

🏀 Best March Madness betting sites

Looking to bet on the NCAA Tournament? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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