Knicks vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Pick & Odds: Can Mitchell Robinson Dominate in the Paint?
The New York Knicks visit the Cleveland Cavaliers in a battle of Eastern Conference contenders on Tuesday, and we're making our Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction based on the best NBA odds.
The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers have each lost two of their first three games this season to set up the potential for a three-game losing skid being handed to the loser of their Halloween encounter.
The Cavs have been without Jarrett Allen, and Darius Garland has been out for two games. Both Allen and Garland are out for Tuesday, with Donovan Mitchell questionable. The shorthanded Cavs will need big minutes from their available players if they hope to defeat a healthy Knicks team with no players on the injury report.
New York was sluggish on offense against the New Orleans Pelicans and Boston Celtics but came away with a victory over the Atlanta Hawks. The team has been healthy from top to bottom. New York took Cleveland down in the first round of last year’s Eastern Conference playoffs, but who will win the rematch on Tuesday?
Here is our best Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction
Mitchell Robinson to record a double-double (+525 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This one is a long shot, but hear me out.
Robinson appeared in 59 games last season. He reached double-digit points just 22 times and recorded only 13 double-doubles. He pulled down at least 10 rebounds in 27 contests. Those aren’t inspiring numbers, but let’s dive in a little deeper.
The Cavs’ defense is not starting the season out like they were the best unit in the Association a season ago. Cleveland ranks 23rd in paint points allowed (52) after ranking third last season (46.3). The Cavs rank 21st in total rebounds allowed (56.3) after ranking fifth a season ago (49.7). Finally, Cleveland’s 115.3 points per game allowed (20th) is a far cry from the league-low 106.5 they allowed in 2022-23.
What does this mean for MitchRob? Robinson leads the NBA comfortably in offensive rebounds per game at 6.3. He also ranks sixth in rebound chances at 19.7. He’s in a great position to gobble up rebounds against a below-average Cavs team missing half of its defensive-minded frontcourt. Offensive rebounds could lead to easy second-chance points, which is why we’re banking on him getting to double-digits in scoring.
Robinson thrives in the paint, and Cleveland is allowing far more points there (and overall) than they did in 2022-23. Robinson is averaging a career-low 5.7 points per game through three games this season, but he’s grabbing a career-best 11.3 boards. I love his rebounds prop at 9.5, but we can do better than the odds offered for that prop and make this a plus-money wager by adding on a bit of extra offense.
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Knicks vs. Cavaliers best odds
BetMGM (+525)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double-Double | Double-Double | Double-Double | Double-Double | Double-Double |
| +390 | +500 | +525 | +355 | +450 |
Caesars and DraftKings offer this one at surprisingly short odds, and we can do better at bet365 and FanDuel.
BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps that doesn’t specifically offer a Robinson double-double, but we can get there with a single-game parlay (SGP) of Over 9.5 Points and Over 9.5 Rebounds for +525 odds.
Knicks vs. Cavaliers odds
Knicks vs. Cavaliers odds analysis
Cleveland opened as 1-point favorites on Monday, but the line moved in favor of the Knicks by as many as five points at our best sports betting sites before settling in at Knicks -2.5. Down Garland and Allen and with Mitchell banged up, Cleveland will have a tough time winning outright, but homecourt could be advantageous for the team covering as home dogs.
The Knicks rank 23rd in scoring at 105.7 points per game, while the Cavs rank 16th at 110.7. The point total opened at 216, fell to as low as 213, and has come back up to 214 or 214.5, depending on the book.
The Knicks are 1-2 to the Under this season, while the Cavs are 2-1 to the Over. It’s a small total, but without at least two key players in the rotation, offense may be more difficult to come by for the home team.
Knicks vs. Cavaliers game info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2023, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
- How to watch: TNT
Knicks-Cavaliers pick made 10/31/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
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