NBA Finals Series Props: Who Will Lead Mavericks vs. Celtics in Points, Rebounds, Assists, Threes?
We're offering our best NBA Finals series props with expert predictions for Mavericks vs. Celtics stat leaders based on the best NBA odds from our best sports betting sites.
Entering this year's 2024 NBA Finals, the spotlight has centered on the key stars for the Boston Celtics (64-18) and Dallas Mavericks (50-32), who face off tonight for Game 1 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic are the favorites by the NBA Finals MVP odds, and they're the frontrunners to lead this series in points, rebounds, and assists, too. That's why those two ranked so highly in our NBA Finals MVP predictions, though there are multiple All-Stars among the supporting casts with a chance to swing this series.
To complement our NBA Finals odds & betting preview, here are our best NBA Finals series leader predictions for Mavericks vs. Celtics.
NBA Finals stat leader odds, expert picks
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best NBA betting sites.
- Luka Doncic to lead series in points (-180 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jayson Tatum to lead series in assists (+1200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jayson Tatum to lead series in rebounds (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Luka Doncic to lead series in threes (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Odds to lead NBA Finals in points
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | -205 | -180 🔥 | -200 | -225 ❄️ | -190 |
| Jayson Tatum | +280 🔥 | +260 | +275 | +260 | +250 ❄️ |
| Kyrie Irving | +1000 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 |
| Jaylen Brown | +1300 🔥 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 | +1100 ❄️ |
| Kristaps Porzingis | +5000 | +4800 ❄️ | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Derrick White | +5000 ❄️ | +6500 | +8000 🔥 | +7500 | +6500 |
| P.J. Washington | +15000 | +12000 ❄️ | +20000 🔥 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Jrue Holiday | OFF | +12000 | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 ❄️ |
Let's be honest: this is really a two-horse race between Luka Doncic (-180) and Jayson Tatum (+280), the respective leading scorers for these two finalists and the clear favorites in this market.
Those two led their teams in the conference finals, with Doncic averaging 32.4 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves' top-ranked defense and Tatum scoring 30.3 per game against a ... less than stellar Indiana Pacers defense. The latter has struggled with his shot all postseason, though, while the former is heating up at the right time.
I feel strongly that Doncic will be the leading scorer in this series, but the better question is about value. Doncic's best odds imply a 64.29% chance that he'll pace the series in points, per our odds converter, which feels reasonable enough to lay the short price in this market.
Prediction: Luka Doncic (-180 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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Odds to lead NBA Finals in assists
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | -700 ❄️ | -650 | -600 | -675 | -500 🔥 |
| Jayson Tatum | +1200 🔥 | +950 | +1000 | +1000 | +750 ❄️ |
| Kyrie Irving | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 | +1500 ❄️ | +1600 |
| Derrick White | +1800 ❄️ | +3000 | +3000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Jrue Holiday | +2000 | +2400 | +2500 | +2000 | +2500 |
| Jaylen Brown | +10000 | OFF | OFF | +7500 ❄️ | +10000 |
| Payton Pritchard | +15000 | OFF | OFF | +7500 ❄️ | +30000 🔥 |
This is another market where Luka Doncic (-500) is the prohibitive favorite with odds as short as -700 across our best sportsbooks. Even his longest odds are a little too rich for me, especially against a Celtics defense that likes to switch everything and take away easy passing lanes to the corners or inside the arc.
That has me leaning to the other side of this matchup with a focus on Jayson Tatum (+1200), who quietly leads Boston in assists per game (5.9) in this postseason. He had eight assists in each of his team's final two wins in Indiana, and he also led the way in the 2022 NBA Finals, when he averaged a team-high seven assists against the Golden State Warriors with his shot not falling.
I don't expect Tatum to fall apart offensively like he did in that series, but I do think he can make a serious impact as a facilitator as opposed to trying to match Doncic bucket-for-bucket. You can also bet on Tatum to lead all non-Doncic players in assists at +140 via bet365, though these odds pay out 8.6x more.
Prediction: Jayson Tatum (+1200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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Odds to lead NBA Finals in rebounds
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | -150 ❄️ | -120 | -140 | -125 | -110 🔥 |
| Luka Doncic | +180 🔥 | +165 | +175 | +170 | +160 ❄️ |
| Dereck Lively | +900 | +1100 | +1200 🔥 | +1000 | +900 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | +1000 ❄️ | +1600 | +1600 | +1200 | +1400 |
| Daniel Gafford | +2500 | +2100 | +2500 | +1800 ❄️ | +2200 |
| Al Horford | +3000 ❄️ | +6500 🔥 | +3500 | +3500 | +4000 |
| Jaylen Brown | +7000 🔥 | +6500 | +6600 | +6500 | +2800 ❄️ |
| P.J. Washington | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +6500 | +3300 ❄️ |
| Jrue Holiday | +30000 🔥 | OFF | OFF | +7000 | +5000 ❄️ |
Finally, Jayson Tatum (-110) finds himself as the betting favorite in a market that should play to his strengths. He led the Celtics in rebounding in the regular season (8.1 RPG) and has elevated his play in the postseason (10.4 RPG), grabbing at least 10 rebounds in 11 of 14 games thus far.
Luka Doncic (+180) is clearly live in this market as the Mavericks' leading rebounder this postseason (9.6 RPG). Yet the Dallas player I have my eyes on is Dereck Lively II (+1200), who quietly ranks third this postseason in total rebounding rate (19%) and offensive rebound rate (13.6%) - the best marks by anyone in this series.
In the end, it feels like rare value on Tatum at these outlier -110 odds, which imply a 52.38% probability with a $9.09 profit on a winning $10 wager. If Lively gets the playing time, though, I could see him threatening for the lead. I'd recommend playing both in this series, though Tatum is the official "prediction" and deserves a larger stake.
Prediction: Jayson Tatum (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Odds to lead NBA Finals in threes
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | +100 | +110 | +110 | -120 | -130 ❄️ |
| Derrick White | +250 ❄️ | +370 | +350 | +275 | +500 🔥 |
| Jayson Tatum | +500 ❄️ | +650 | +700 🔥 | +550 | +600 |
| Kyrie Irving | +700 | +650 | +700 | +650 | +650 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | +2000 | +1600 ❄️ | +2000 | +2000 | +2200 🔥 |
| Jaylen Brown | +2200 | +3000 🔥 | +2500 | +2000 ❄️ | +2500 |
| P.J. Washington | +2500 | +3000 | +3000 | +2500 | +1600 ❄️ |
| Jrue Holiday | +3000 | +1600 ❄️ | +2500 | +3000 | +2500 |
| Al Horford | +3000 | OFF | OFF | +3000 | +5000 🔥 |
| Sam Hauser | +10000 | OFF | OFF | +10000 | +15000 🔥 |
| Payton Pritchard | +10000 | OFF | OFF | +10000 | +15000 🔥 |
| Josh Green | +25000 | OFF | OFF | +15000 ❄️ | +25000 |
On paper, this is the most wide-open market on the board given the game-to-game volatility of 3-point shooting. The best way to attack that volatility? High volume.
That's why Luka Doncic (+110) is dealing as short as -130 to lead the field in triples, and it's why my fellow NBA betting expert Rob Paul highlighted this bet as his favorite of the series in our NBA Finals expert picks. This postseason, Doncic has more 3-point attempts (166) and makes (57) than anyone else in this series, and he'll need to keep that up for the Mavericks to win the series.
Interestingly, Derrick White (+500) has hit more threes per game (3.42) than Doncic (3.35) - albeit in three fewer games - and he's priced as short as +250 to pace the field in 3-pointers. He's hit multiple triples in five straight contests entering Game 1 and 12 of 14 games this postseason, and he should see plenty of open looks in this series.
I'm also intrigued by these long odds on Al Horford (+5000), especially if teammate Kristaps Porzingis (+2200) can't handle extended minutes as he recovers from a calf strain. Horford hit 15 threes in the 2022 NBA Finals and has erupted at times this postseason, and the Mavericks are vulnerable against bigs who can hit the long ball.
This feels like a market where sprinkling a few bucks across multiple long shots could be the prudent play. If you're looking for one bet to make, though, it's clearly Doncic at these +110 odds, which return $11 in profit for every $10 wagered.
Prediction: Luka Doncic (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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NBA Finals picks for Game 1, series
Game 1 predictions
- Mavericks vs. Celtics player props
- Mavericks vs. Celtics parlay
- Luka Doncic odds and player props
- Jayson Tatum odds and player props
Series predictions
Mavericks-Celtics series props made Thursday at 3 p.m. ET.
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