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Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks drives to the basket against Payton Pritchard (11) of the Boston Celtics, as we offer our best Luka Doncic player props and expert picks for Thursday's Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden in Boston.
Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks drives to the basket against Payton Pritchard (11) of the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on March 1, 2024 in Boston. Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images via AFP.

Luka Doncic leads the Dallas Mavericks against the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, as we offer our best Luka Doncic player props based on the best NBA odds.

If there remained any lingering doubts about the best basketball player alive, Luka Doncic did his best to end that conversation in the Western Conference Finals, when he torched the Minnesota Timberwolves' top-ranked defense in a gentleman's sweep.

He'll set his sights on the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, which tips off tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites to win at TD Garden and remain the clear favorites by the NBA championship odds to win their first title since 2008.

Entering his first Finals appearance, Doncic boasts the second-shortest NBA Finals MVP odds, and he's the frontrunner to lead the series in points, assists, and 3-pointers. Will Doncic's stellar performance translate into a dominant showing in Game 1 for the Slovenian sensation?

Luka Doncic odds, player props for Game 1

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best NBA betting sites.

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Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We're going with a simple points prop for our best bet in Game 1. That's the luxury of backing a singularly dominant scorer like Doncic - you don't have to get cute to profit.

This bet may have been riskier a few weeks ago, when Doncic was still hampered by a knee injury he suffered in Round 1. That hasn't fully healed even with an extra week off, but he sure looked right last round as he tormented the Timberwolves' suffocating defense - which limited three-time MVP Nikola Jokic in Round 2 - and scored 32-plus in four of five games in the series.

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I considered pairing this with his assists for a combined total of 40.5 - as our Rob Paul did in his Mavericks vs. Celtics player props - but I'm just not sure those easy passing opportunities will be there against the Celtics, who love to switch all five spots and trust their myriad All-Defensive level perimeter stoppers to handle scorers in isolation.

That sounds great in theory, but Doncic is a wizard with the basketball and has cooked opponents in 1-on-1 situations all postseason long. Surely, the Celtics will be forced to pivot and throw junky looks his way late in the game, but not before he clears this total for the fifth time in six games.

Best odds: -111 via Caesars

See Rob Paul's Mavericks vs. Celtics parlay for more on Doncic.

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Luka Doncic Over 1.5 steals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We noted in the conference finals that Doncic's defensive effort was arguably the best of his career. And we're catching insane value on a continuation of that effort in Game 1.

The Mavericks star led his team in scoring in the Western Conference Finals, but he also quietly had 11 steals - more than twice as many as any of his teammates. He cleared this prop total in three of five games in that series, and he's now registered multiple steals in eight of his last 11 games.

So why, exactly, are we seeing +145 odds from bet365 for him to do that again on Thursday? These odds imply a 40.82% chance that he extends that run, per our odds converter, and pays out $14.50 on a $10 bet if he does. Sign me up for that.

Best odds: +145 via bet365

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Luka Doncic 1Q scoring leader ⭐⭐⭐

It's always a bit of a risk betting on first-quarter scoring props, but it's hard to ignore the +150 odds from DraftKings, which imply a mere 40% chance that Doncic leads all scorers through the first 12 minutes.

He set the T-Wolves ablaze with 20 points in the first quarter of the Mavericks' series-ending win in Game 5, hitting eight of 11 shots to outscore Minnesota on his own. That followed a 10-point period to open Game 4, and he's averaging 9.6 points in the first quarter throughout this postseason.

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Given that Doncic is as short as -145 to lead all scorers across the full game, I love the value on him to pace the field in the first quarter, which returns more than double the profit of a full-game scoring leader bet.

Best odds: +150 via FanDuel

Luka Doncic playoff stats in 2024

Opponent (round)PPGRPGAPG3PM
Minnesota Timberwolves (WCF)32.49.68.24.6
Oklahoma City Thunder (2nd)24.710.58.73.0
Los Angeles Clippers (1st)29.88.89.52.7

Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 1 odds

NBA Finals predictions

How to watch Mavericks vs. Celtics in Game 1 of 2024 NBA Finals

  • When: Thursday, June 6
  • Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: TD Garden (Boston)
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Favorite: Celtics -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Luka Doncic player props picks made Wednesday at 1:45 p.m. ET.

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