NBA Best Bets & Expert Picks Today: Basketball Predictions for Wednesday, Nov. 11

My ego is bruised after betting 76ers +1.5 (-110) Tuesday and watching that mess play out, but I'm back with my NBA best bets today. I'm up +7.03 units on the season with a 5.9% ROI, so I guess things could be worse, but a 76ers cover would've been a big swing.

Anyway, I'm attacking just two games today. I have the Over on a player prop in Wizards vs. Pacers, which tips off at 7 p.m. ET, and a player prop and a side in Lakers vs. Bucks, with tipoff set for 8 p.m. ET.

NBA best bets: Player props & ATS picks today (Nov. 11)

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.

Picks submitted: Nov. 11 at 9:41 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.

Total wagered: 3.84 units | Max profit: 3.5 units

Best NBA bet today

Lakers vs. Bucks prediction: Lakers -13.5 (-108)

What are the Bucks going to do in this game to stay competitive? The Lakers rank first in the NBA with a 121.5 offensive rating, while the Bucks rank 29th with a 120.5 defensive rating.

Los Angeles has been somewhat lucky so far this season - they're an NBA-best 10-2 but rank just eighth with a 7.6 net rating - but this is a best-case scenario matchup for the Lakers. The Bucks just allowed 117 points to the Knicks, who rank ninth with a 115.7 offensive rating.

The Lakers should easily score 120 points.

Play to: -14.5 (-106)

More NBA picks & player props for Wednesday

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Luka Doncic Over 33.5 points (-120)

I could list a million stats as to why Luka Doncic is scoring at a historic rate, but I'm genuinely approaching this bet from a different angle. We have two things working for us today if we want to bet Doncic's Over on points: his last game and the Lakers' spread.

Doncic had scored 37 or more points in each of his previous seven games entering Monday, but that streak ended in Atlanta. So, the market has calmed down after so many people bet Overs on Doncic, giving us a reasonable line.

Also, as the Lakers' spread goes up, Doncic's line goes down, based on the assumption that he will play fewer minutes in a blowout. However, the Bucks are bad enough defensively that Doncic can clear this in three quarters.

Play to: Over 34.5 (-106)

Wizards vs. Pacers prediction: Anthony Davis Over 10.5 rebounds (-102)

Forget that Anthony Davis is coming off a 13-rebound performance against the Pistons in Detroit, as results can be noisy. He has a great matchup today to clear this line.

The Pacers rank 29th in the NBA with a 46.5% rebounding percentage. Meanwhile, Davis ranks 10th in the NBA (among qualified starters) with a 17% rebounding percentage in November. While Ivica Zubac and Pascal Siakam make up a long frontcourt for the Pacers, neither is an elite rebounder, and I believe Davis has a better than 50.5% chance of recording 11-plus rebounds.

Play to: Over 10.5 (-110)