College Football ATS Picks Week 11: Predictions Against the Spread

My college football ATS picks went 3-1 on the final four plays of the week, with the only loss coming because I got the wrong side of the Miami number prior to Malachi Toney’s injury announcement (I backed the Hurricanes at +5.5 and would’ve cashed at +7.5).

I am almost assuredly going to end up on the contrarian side with several of this week’s ATS wagers, especially since I fade the top three teams in the AP Poll (No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Utah, and No. 3 Notre Dame). 

College football picks against the spread: Week 11

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.

Picks submitted: Nov. 9 at 10 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change. 

Best college football ATS picks

Boston College +29.5 (-108 via DraftKings) vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame needs to avoid deja vu from 1993 when it lost outright to Boston College at home the week after beating the No. 1 team in the country.

The Eagles can hang tough against a Notre Dame team decimated by defensive injuries. The Fighting Irish were already without five defensive starters against Miami (including their leading tackler), and their defense switched from an aggressive man-to-man approach to a heavy zone scheme when top cornerback Leonard Moore went out for a stretch. 

The Eagles only managed a safety and then were the victim of Florida State’s first true road win in nearly three years in the last two weeks. But I’m still calling for them to stay within the number with Notre Dame in a trap spot (hosting SMU next week).

Play to: +28.5 (-110)

Arizona +2.5 (-102 via BetMGM) vs. Utah

An AP top-two team has lost in five consecutive weeks, tying the all-time record in the AP Poll era (it also happened in 2007). With Arizona a prime candidate for an upset, I’m calling for this game to be the record-setter, while getting a gift of 2.5 extra points.

The Wildcats are at a big scheduling advantage, not having to travel after last week’s home game that was played on Friday night. Meanwhile, Utah has flipped back and forth between home and road games for seven straight matchups.

Before last week, Arizona dominated its previous two home matchups, winning by 27 and 36 points in games where it was a 6.5- and 11.5-point favorite, respectively. I expect the Wildcats to return to the brand of football that saw their defense rank in the top 15 in Passing Success Rate and Passing EPA allowed before squeaking out a one-point win over the Horned Frogs.

Play to: +1.5 (+100)

Arkansas +7.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. South Carolina

South Carolina is a respectable 2-2 against the CFP top 25 and has impressive metrics (19th in FPI, 21st in strength of record, and 14th in strength of schedule). The Gamecocks are also riding high with four straight SEC wins for the third time in the last 15 seasons (also done in 2012 and 2024). But I’m leery of South Carolina rolling to another easy win, especially since quarterback LaNorris Sellers may not be 100% after injuring himself during last week’s game-sealing touchdown run.

Sellers is so important to what the Gamecocks do, as he entered last week with a 63% completion percentage, 343.8 total yards, and 15 passing/rushing touchdowns over the previous four games. But he’s also capable of playing frustratingly bad, like when he had a 52 Total QBR, 59% completion percentage, 231 passing yards per game average, and five touchdowns to four turnovers during the team’s three-game losing streak.

Play to: +7.5 (-110), pass at +7 or lower