Buffalo vs. Ball State Prediction: Week 11 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 11)
My Buffalo vs. Ball State prediction focuses on how well both offenses have played in recent weeks.
While neither team ranks high nationally in points per game, both enter averaging at least 30 points per game over the last three weeks. Rain is in the forecast today, but since these are two teams that prefer to run the ball, it shouldn't impact either offense too much. Buffalo is a 2.5-point betting favorite, with kickoff from Scheumann Stadium in Muncie, Ind., set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
Buffalo vs. Ball State picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo -2.5 | -105 via FanDuel | 0.5 units to profit 0.48 units |
| Over 51.5 | -102 via BetMGM | 2.5 units to profit 2.45 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 10 at 6 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3 units | Profit if all picks win: 2.93 units
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Buffalo vs. Ball State prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Over 51.5 (-102 via BetMGM)
Buffalo is averaging 23.9 points per game, scoring at least 31 in back-to-back contests. On Wednesday, I fully expect Buffalo to score in the 30s again, as the Bulls face the MAC's worst-ranked scoring defense.
Ball State is allowing 34.8 points per game, which ranks 132nd nationally. The defense has allowed at least 31 points in six of nine games this season. The only three teams to score below that threshold were the two lowest-scoring offenses in the MAC and FCS Stony Brook.
Buffalo ranks fourth in the MAC in rushing yards per game, averaging 167.33 per contest. Though Buffalo is averaging only 4.06 yards per carry, that number should increase against a defense allowing 4.92 yards per carry and 179.78 rushing yards per game.
📡 SBR Edge
Both of these teams should break off big plays, as Ball State has allowed 141 plays of 10 yards or more and Buffalo has allowed 117. Those totals rank 12th and 10th in the MAC, respectively. Additionally, Ball State has allowed 16 40-yard plays, tied for the sixth-most in the nation.
Buffalo's defense has struggled
Buffalo is allowing the sixth-fewest points per game of any MAC team, giving up an average of 26.0 per game. But ever since holding Toledo to just eight points on Oct. 10, the defense has given up an average of 24.3 points per game over its last three contests. Most concerning is that in a recent home game, Buffalo allowed Bowling Green, a team that is averaging just 17.8 points per game, to score 24 points.
Ball State ranks seventh in the MAC in points per game, averaging 22.9 per contest. The Cardinals have scored at least 30 in three consecutive games, scoring at least 24 in all but one conference game. Additionally, Ball State is averaging 4.31 yards per carry and may find room to run against a Buffalo defense that has struggled at times, allowing 4.25 yards per carry and 154.44 rushing yards per game.
Play to: Over 54.5 at -110
Score prediction: Buffalo 34, Ball State 31
Live Buffalo vs. Ball State odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Buffalo vs. Ball State page.
Buffalo vs. Ball State opening odds
- Moneyline: Buffalo -140 | Ball State +120
- Spread: Buffalo -2.5 (-116) | Ball State +2.5 (-104)
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-115) | Under 50.5 (-105)
Buffalo vs. Ball State weather
Rain could impact this game, as there's a greater than 45% chance of precipitation during the game. However, wind gusts are expected to reach only 14 mph, and temperatures shouldn't drop below the high 40s.
Latest Buffalo vs. Ball State injuries
Buffalo:
- None
Ball State:
- None
How to watch Buffalo vs. Ball State: Week 11
- Date: Wednesday, Nov. 11
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Scheumann Stadium (Muncie, Ind.)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN2, Fubo
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