College Football Moneyline Picks Week 11: Predictions to Win This Week

My college football moneyline picks went a profitable 11-9 last week, including cashing all six plays that involved ranked teams. We hit on three underdog plays of +105, +105, and +115 odds, and largely avoided the chaos that saw five of the College Football Playoff’s top 12 teams lose last week. 

The Week 11 slate is a fascinating one as it seemingly has many matchup with teams needing wins to avoid a virtual elimination from the CFP field. Among the three plays I highlight, one is a fade of No. 13 Tennessee, who needs to be careful to avoid a third loss in what oddsmakers view as an obvious trap spot. 

College football moneyline picks: Week 11

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.

Best college football moneyline picks: Week 11

South Florida (+160 via DraftKings) vs. Memphis

Bet size: 1 unit

South Florida’s strengths play directly into Memphis’ biggest weaknesses in this Thursday night matchup. The Bulls love to run the ball in heavy formations with multiple tight ends and have generated a 56% Rush Success Rate in those formations. Meanwhile, Memphis ranks in the bottom 20 in Rush EPA allowed and is 98th or worse in Stuff Rate and Line Yards.

Based on these trends, it sets up as a big day for Bulls running back D.J. Crowther, who is a machine at forcing missed tackles (57 on the season). 

Memphis does have an advantage with having last played on Halloween, while South Florida is on a short week with a game last Friday. But the Tigers also have this game sandwiched between two unique games against service academies (Army and Navy), and the preparation needed to face those teams likely cut into this matchup.

Texas A&M (+116 via FanDuel) vs. No. 9 Tennessee

Bet size: 1 unit

Texas A&M’s homefield advantage at Kyle Field is real, and is the main reason the Aggies are catching less than a field goal against an AP top-9 team. I’m buying what the oddsmakers are selling, especially since the Aggies haven’t looked like a well-oiled machine on the field.

Texas A&M’s offense since the end of last year’s Texas game has failed to produce a single touchdown in exactly half of its eight games versus Power 4 opponents. But the Aggies have a case for curious optimism after becoming the first team in college football history to have 450-plus total yards of offense and zero turnovers but score zero touchdowns in the same game (which they did in a 17-9 loss to South Carolina last week).

Tennessee is riding high with consecutive wins against AP top-10 opponents for the first time since 1999. Its 28-point win over Kentucky is its second-largest win against an AP top-10 team in program history. So why is the point spread so low? Probably because this game has T-R-A-P written all over it.

Oklahoma State (-160 via FanDuel) vs. No. 10 Texas Tech

Bet size: 1 unit

Oklahoma State is coming off a 66-28 trouncing of Kansas State. That margin of victory is impressive in any road victory, but especially so since the Cowboys showed they can avoid letdown spots after losing to Iowa State after a one-week absence from the AP Poll.

The Cowboys have scored 41 or more points in six straight games, averaging 57.3 points over a three-game span, despite two coming on the road. They should also light up the scoreboard against a Texas Tech defense that just surrendered 48 points to West Virginia at home and 37 points to Cincinnati in their last road game (the Bearcats’ second-highest point total in conference play). The Red Raiders were also outgained by a bad Colorado team in the road game prior to that.

Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker inspires the utmost confidence, throwing for a school-record 300-plus yards in eight straight games. I don’t expect a Red Raiders offense that entered last week ranked 95th in red-zone scoring rate to keep up.