NBA Finals Expert Picks: Mavericks vs. Celtics Series Predictions
The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks face off in the 2024 NBA Finals, as we offer our NBA Finals expert picks based on the odds from our best NBA betting sites.
Either the Boston Celtics or Dallas Mavericks will win their first championship in over a decade, as those two face off in the 2024 NBA Finals with Game 1 tipping off tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) from TD Garden in Boston.
The Celtics have maintained their status as favorites by the NBA championship odds after winning 12 of 14 postseason games to reach their second NBA Finals in three seasons. They were also favorites in the 2022 NBA Finals before losing in six games to the Golden State Warriors.
Being an underdog isn't a new position for the Mavericks, who knocked off three 50-win teams in the loaded Western Conference en route to their first Finals appearance since winning it all in 2011.
Along with our NBA Finals odds and betting preview and our Mavericks vs. Celtics player props, here are our NBA Finals expert picks from C Jackson Cowart and Rob Paul (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NBA Finals expert picks: Mavericks vs. Celtics
| C Jackson Cowart | Rob Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| To win series | Mavericks (+190 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ | Celtics (-210 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Series spread | Mavericks +1.5 (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐ | Celtics -1.5 (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐ |
| NBA Finals MVP | Luka Doncic (+225 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ | Jayson Tatum (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Best series prop | Luka Doncic 4 or more 30+ point games (+170 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Luka Doncic to lead series in threes (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Game 1 pick | Over 214.5 (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐ | Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
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Mavericks vs. Celtics predictions
Mavericks to win series (+190 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Look, if I had to choose outright, I think the Celtics win this series. They’re the better team on paper with so many different ways to win. But I also think the Mavericks have much better than a 34.5% chance to win - as this price suggests via our odds converter - which is ultimately what betting is all about.
It feels like the NBA intelligentsia is lauding Doncic’s heroic postseason while broadly waving their hands toward Boston’s defense as if it’s a magic elixir. Have we all forgotten that Doncic twisted the Timberwolves’ top-ranked defense, which also featured multiple All-Defensive caliber players and size galore, into a knot no matter what they threw his way?
On the other end, the Celtics have leaned heavily into 3-point shooting - a notoriously volatile way to win - to fuel their historic net rating. That unlocks a ceiling that’s virtually unmatched, but it also leaves Boston mighty vulnerable to big swings over a seven-game series.
In the end, this feels much more like a heavyweight prize fight than David vs. Goliath on hardwood. With such generous odds from bet365, I’ll take a shot on the Mavericks channeling their inner Warriors and upsetting the Celtics in the Finals.
–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)
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Celtics -1.5 (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
If you’re going to bet on the Celtics to win the NBA Finals, betting them straight up isn’t the way to go about it. The best odds for the Celtics to win the series are just -210, which only pay a $4.76 profit on a $10 bet, and that’s not worth the risk given how well Doncic has played as of late.
Boston has been the best team in the NBA all season, but Doncic is the rare talent capable of pressuring the Celtics' loaded lineup. So the best bang for your buck, and safest bet, is to go with the series spread of -1.5. That way, as long as the C's win the series in six games or less - and I feel strongly they’ll take it in six - this bet will cash.
These odds are a much better value than taking Boston straight up, with a $10 bet paying an $11 profit if the favorites win the NBA Finals in fewer than seven games. And while Doncic and the volatile Kyrie Irving are an explosive backcourt, the Celtics were the only team in the NBA to rank top three in both offensive (123.2) and defensive rating (111.6) this season.
On paper, Boston is the better team with a pair of two-way stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, two All-Defensive stoppers in Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, and two trusted big men in Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis, who’s expected to be healthy for Game 1. I just don’t think the Mavericks have the depth to keep up.
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Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 1 pick
Over 214.5 (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
While I like the Mavericks’ chances to win the series, it’ll be tough for them to win Game 1 on the road against the rested Celtics. Conversely, I’m hesitant to lay the points on Boston without knowing what to expect from Porzingis in his return.
Instead, I’m targeting the Over on a fairly reasonable total for two offenses with compelling ways to attack the opposing defense. As mentioned above, Doncic has been a one-man wrecking crew, and I don’t see Boston uncovering the answer to stopping him without testing some different coverages in Game 1. Good luck with that.
Dallas’ defense has been its calling card over the last four months, but the Celtics present a unique challenge with five shooters on the floor at all times - something the Mavericks haven’t had to worry about to this point. I think that high-volume approach could bite Boston over seven games, but in Game 1, it should bode well for Over bettors.
–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)
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Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is easily my favorite bet of Game 1. For all of Tatum’s inconsistencies from beyond the arc in the postseason, he’s been an absolute animal on the glass and continues to be the leader in assists for Boston, too.
Only three players this postseason have averaged double-digit rebounds and more than five assists per game: Tatum, Nikola Jokic, and Joel Embiid. That’s pretty good company to keep with the other two having won the last four MVP awards.
Tatum’s rebounding is what really makes this prop a great value. He’s pulled down at least 10 rebounds in 11 of 14 postseason games and has averaged double-digit boards in each series. He’s also been showcasing his playmaking even more in recent weeks after averaging over six assists in each of Boston’s last two series.
The Celtics star has gone Over 15.5 rebounds and assists in six of his last seven games, and Dallas allowed 15.36 rebounds and assists to power forwards this season. These odds imply a 51.22% win probability with a $10 bet paying a $9.52 profit.
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NBA Finals predictions
- Mavericks vs. Celtics player props Game 1
- Mavericks vs. Celtics parlay Game 1
- Luka Doncic odds and player props Game 1
- Jayson Tatum odds and player props Game 1
- NBA Finals expert picks
- NBA Finals MVP odds, predictions
How to bet on the NBA Finals
Before placing any bets, familiarize yourself with the basic types of bets you can place on NBA games from prop bets to spread bets to Over/Under bets. Figuring out what you want to bet on is almost as important as deciding which best sports betting apps you'll place your bets at. From there, study the teams, players, and recent performances. Consider factors like injuries, team dynamics, and home-court advantage.
Look at key player matchups and how they might influence the game. For instance, if one team has a dominant center and the other struggles with interior defense, that could be a key factor. Consider how each team’s strengths align with the other team’s weaknesses. For example, a team that excels in three-point shooting could have an advantage over a team that struggles to defend the perimeter.
Injuries can significantly impact the outcome of a game. Keep up-to-date with the latest injury reports and player statuses. Even the absence of a key role player can shift the dynamics of the game. Examine how the teams have been playing in recent games. Teams peaking at the right time often carry momentum into the Finals. Look at win streaks, defensive and offensive efficiencies, and how they’ve fared against strong competition.
By incorporating these strategies into your NBA Finals betting approach, you can make more informed and potentially more successful bets. Always remember to bet responsibly and within your means.
2024 NBA Finals schedule
| Game | Location | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | TD Garden (Boston) | Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 2 | TD Garden (Boston) | Sunday, June 9 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 3 | American Airlines Center (Dallas) | Wednesday, June 12 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 4 | American Airlines Center (Dallas) | Friday, June 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 5 | TD Garden (Boston) | Monday, June 17 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 6 | American Airlines Center (Dallas) | Thursday, June 20 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) |
| 7 | TD Garden (Boston) | Sunday, June 23 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC) |
NBA Finals FAQ
Who is the NBA Finals favorite?
The Boston Celtics enter the 2024 NBA Finals as -210 favorites to beat the Dallas Mavericks (+190) and win their 18th championship in franchise history. Those -210 odds represent a 67.74% implied probability that Boston wins it all, per our odds converter.
When do the NBA Finals start?
The 2024 NBA Finals begin with Game 1 on Thursday, June 6 with tipoff set for 8:30 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston.
When do the NBA Finals end?
The 2024 NBA Finals will extend through at least Game 4, which tips off Friday, June 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET from American Airlines Center in Dallas. Should this series extend to seven games, Game 7 would tip off on Sunday, June 23 from TD Garden in Boston.
Who won the NBA Finals last year?
The Denver Nuggets defeated the Miami Heat in five games to win their first NBA championship in franchise history.
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