Sparks vs. Lynx Prediction, Expert Picks & WNBA Odds: Can Minnesota Score Statement Win on Friday?

The Minnesota Lynx host the Los Angeles Sparks at Target Center on Friday, as we offer our best Sparks vs. Lynx prediction and expert picks based on the best WNBA odds.

Last week, the Minnesota Lynx (9-3) pummeled the Los Angeles Sparks (4-8) in its biggest blowout win of the season. Those two meet again Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ION) at Target Center, with the host Lynx priced as favorites between 12.5 and 13.5 points across our best sports betting sites.

Minnesota entered the season as a long shot by the WNBA championship odds, but it's played like the best team in the WNBA and enters Friday with the best record in the Western Conference. A key reason is the stellar play of Napheesa Collier, who owns the third-shortest WNBA MVP odds through the first month of the season.

She led the way last week with 25 points against the Sparks, who have since won two of three games after an uninspiring 2-7 start.

Sparks vs. Lynx prediction for Friday

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

Lynx -12.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When evaluating this matchup, the easiest place to start is the first time these teams played last Wednesday in Los Angeles.

Minnesota jumped out to a 27-12 lead after the first quarter and led by as many as 28 points in the third quarter before a Sparks rally to close the third. The Lynx still walked away with an 86-62 road win - tied for their biggest margin of victory all season.

That's what we've come to expect from this group, which owns the WNBA's best net rating (+12.9) and is the only team ranked in the top three in offensive rating (105.5) and defensive rating (92.6). Minnesota has outscored teams by 10.7 points per game, and it's won six of its last nine games by at least 13 points.

That includes Tuesday's win over the Las Vegas Aces, when the Lynx became the first team in WNBA history with five starters posting at least 14 points, four rebounds, and one 3-pointer. That's a testament to this team's versatility and how dangerous it can be when everything is clicking.

Minnesota has so many ways to beat you with three players - Kayla McBride (second), Collier (fourth), and Alanna Smith (10th) - ranked in the top 10 in win shares. There's a reason why the Lynx rank third in my latest WNBA power rankings, and I'm not sure our best sportsbooks are fully treating them as such.

Sparks' recent wins deserve scrutiny

Look, it's hard to win in the WNBA. Just ask the Washington Mystics, who couldn't pop champagne for an entire month. So the Sparks deserve credit for responding to that blowout loss to the Lynx with two big wins over the Dallas Wings and Aces, respectively, over their next two games.

Does that mean this is a different team than the one that was blown out on its home court by Minnesota? Not exactly. The Wings are depleted with three starters on the shelf and entered Thursday with a five-game losing streak. The Aces have similarly dropped three straight and four of their last five entering Thursday's action.

Then, facing a Seattle Storm team in a similar tier to the Lynx, Los Angeles fell back down to earth in a 16-point loss that saw star Dearica Hamby score a season-low 16 points. Meanwhile, Minnesota keeps chugging along with five wins in its last six games by an average of 18.4 points per victory.

With these teams each having three days between their prior game on Tuesday and this one - and the Lynx boasting a healthy rotation that has already crushed L.A. once before - I don't see any reason to expect a different result when they meet at Target Center on Friday.

Best odds: -110 via Caesars

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Sparks vs. Lynx player props for Friday

Dearica Hamby Under 33.5 pts + reb + ast ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hamby has been a revelation for the Sparks this season, ranking sixth in the WNBA in scoring (20 PPG) and third in rebounds (11.4 RPG) as of Thursday. But this total is a little too optimistic on her outlook for Friday's tilt.

While she cleared this total in each of her first five starts this season, Hamby has fallen short of this mark in five of her last seven games. That includes that loss last week to the Lynx, when she finished with 30 combined points, rebounds, and assists.

She's scored 18 or fewer points in three of her last four games, and she's taken 16 or fewer shots in all but one start this season. She's also topped out at five assists in all but one game this year, and her rebounding totals have plateaued between 10 and 12 boards as of late. I just don't see the upside in her suddenly reversing course and reaching this lofty total.

As if that isn't enough, bet365 is offering this prop bet at +105 odds, which pays out $10.50 for every $10 wagered and represents an implied probability of 48.78%, per our odds converter. Given that Hamby has cleared this total just once in her last five starts, I love our chances of cashing the Under at this plus-money price.

Best odds: +105 via bet365

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Sparks vs. Lynx odds

Sparks vs. Lynx game info

• When: Friday, June 14
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Target Center (Minneapolis)
• How to watch: ION
• Favorite: Minnesota -13.5 (+100 via BetMGM)

Sparks-Lynx predictions made Thursday at 2:30 p.m. ET.

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