2025 NASCAR Championship Race AI Picks: ChatGPT's Full Predictions Today at Phoenix

For the final time this season, our NASCAR AI predictions project the winner of today's Cup Series championship race at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET, NBC) with our best bets and full finishing order according to our AI model.

We asked ChatGPT for its NASCAR at Phoenix predictions based on historical data, betting odds, and statistical trends - including its pick to win, best prop bet, favorite long shot, and results for every driver for today's 38-car field.

🏆 Best bet to win NASCAR Championship Race

🏎️ William Byron

• Racing team: No. 24 (Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
• Starting position: 2nd
• Best odds: +400 via DraftKings ($10 to win $40)

✅ Why William Byron wins at Phoenix

1. Championship Composure & Consistency
Byron has evolved into one of the sport’s most complete drivers — precise, calm, and mistake-free in long-run battles. His Phoenix record in the Next Gen car speaks volumes: two wins, four top-5s, and 450+ laps led over the last four visits. He knows how to manage the balance shift as track temps fall and traffic builds.

2. Hendrick’s 1-Mile Supremacy
The No. 24 crew unloaded fast and optimized tire wear better than any team in Saturday’s practice sessions. Hendrick Motorsports has won three of the last five Phoenix races, with Byron often the cleanest car on exit. Their pit crew ranks No. 2 overall in average stop time — crucial when stage cautions stack the field.

3. Front-Row Advantage & Race Control
Starting second gives Byron immediate inside-lane access — the preferred line on Lap 1. At Phoenix, that can mean 30–40 laps of control early while others fight dirty air. With his rhythm, pit efficiency, and trackhouse composure, Byron is perfectly positioned to repeat as Cup champion.

🔢 AI simulation for William Byron

• Projected finish: 1st
• Simulated odds to win: 27.2%
• Confidence rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 out of 5 stars)

🎯 Best NASCAR Championship Race prop bet

🏎️ Ryan Blaney top-5 finish

• Racing team: No. 12 (Team Penske Ford)
• Starting position: 5th
• Best odds: -130 via bet365 ($10 to win $7.69)

✅ Why Ryan Blaney finishes top-5 at Phoenix

1. Elite Recent Form in the Desert
Blaney’s last three Phoenix finishes: 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Penske’s short-track setups translate perfectly to this 1-mile rhythm, and Blaney’s braking smoothness allows him to conserve tires longer than nearly anyone in the field.

2. Penske Pit Precision
Team Penske ranked No. 1 in average pit-road time on short ovals this season. Blaney’s crew chief Jonathan Hassler is known for bold two-tire calls, and with 500 miles to manage, a single undercut can vault the No. 12 into podium range.

3. Postseason Momentum
Though eliminated from title contention, Blaney has nothing to lose — freeing him to take aggressive restart lines and chase stage points. The simulation gives him a 42% chance to finish top-5, well above his implied 25% market odds.

🔢 AI simulation for Ryan Blaney

• Projected finish: 4th
• Simulated odds for top-5: 42%
• Confidence rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 out of 5 stars)

🚀 Best NASCAR Championship Race long shot

🏎️ Chris Buescher

• Racing team: No. 17 (RFK Racing Ford)
• Starting position: 9th
• Best odds: +6600 via bet365 ($10 to win $660)

✅ Why Chris Buescher can win at Phoenix

1. RFK’s Quiet Short-Track Excellence
Buescher has finished top-10 in six of his last eight short-track starts. RFK’s brake package and tire-wear management have closed the gap to JGR and HMS, giving him true long-run speed when others fade.

2. Clean Racing Style + Chaos Potential
Phoenix finales often hinge on late restarts and playoff contact near the front. Buescher’s disciplined line allows him to stay clear of wrecks and capitalize when title contenders bump each other out of rhythm. His win at Richmond last year showed how quickly RFK can leap from solid to spectacular on similar 1-mile tracks.

3. Massive Value vs. True Probability
At +6600, Buescher’s implied win chance is 1.49%, while the simulation gives him 5.2% — a substantial edge for a mid-tier Ford with race-winning capability if strategy flips late.

🔢 AI simulation for Chris Buescher

• Projected finish: 9th
• Simulated odds to win: 5.2%
• Confidence rating: ⭐⭐⭐ (3 out of 5 stars)

🤖 NASCAR AI projections today

Here is our predicted NASCAR Championship Race finishing order and results for every driver based on AI projections for Phoenix Raceway. While ChatGPT is a large language model and not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, it can spot trends or insights that NASCAR bettors might overlook.

🏁 Projected finish order at Phoenix

1. William Byron (No. 24, Hendrick Motorsports) 🥇
2. Denny Hamlin (No. 11, Joe Gibbs Racing) 🥈
3. Kyle Larson (No. 5, Hendrick Motorsports) 🥉
4. Ryan Blaney (No. 12, Team Penske)
5. Christopher Bell (No. 20, Joe Gibbs Racing)
6. Joey Logano (No. 22, Team Penske)
7. Chase Briscoe (No. 19, Joe Gibbs Racing)
8. Ty Gibbs (No. 54, Joe Gibbs Racing)
9. Chris Buescher (No. 17, RFK Racing)
10. Brad Keselowski (No. 6, RFK Racing)
11. Kyle Busch (No. 8, Richard Childress Racing)
12. Chase Elliott (No. 9, Hendrick Motorsports)
13. Ross Chastain (No. 1, Trackhouse Racing)
14. Alex Bowman (No. 48, Hendrick Motorsports)
15. Tyler Reddick (No. 45, 23XI Racing)
16. Austin Cindric (No. 2, Team Penske)
17. Michael McDowell (No. 71, Spire Motorsports)
18. Ryan Preece (No. 60, RFK Racing)
19. Daniel Suárez (No. 99, Trackhouse Racing)
20. Carson Hocevar (No. 77, Spire Motorsports)
21. Todd Gilliland (No. 34, Front Row Motorsports)
22. Bubba Wallace (No. 23, 23XI Racing)
23. Erik Jones (No. 43, Legacy Motor Club)
24. Cole Custer (No. 41, Haas Factory Team)
25. Josh Berry (No. 21, Wood Brothers Racing)
26. Austin Dillon (No. 3, Richard Childress Racing)
27. Zane Smith (No. 38, Front Row Motorsports)
28. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (No. 47, HYAK Motorsports)
29. Shane Van Gisbergen (No. 88, Trackhouse Racing)
30. AJ Allmendinger (No. 16, Kaulig Racing)
31. Noah Gragson (No. 4, Front Row Motorsports)
32. Justin Haley (No. 7, Spire Motorsports)
33. Riley Herbst (No. 35, 23XI Racing)
34. John Hunter Nemechek (No. 42, Legacy Motor Club)
35. Ty Dillon (No. 10, Kaulig Racing)
36. J.J. Yeley (No. 44, NY Racing)
37. Cody Ware (No. 51, Rick Ware Racing)
38. Casey Mears (No. 66, Garage 66)

💰 NASCAR AI picks for Phoenix

📺 How to watch NASCAR Championship Race at Phoenix

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 2
• Start time: 3 p.m. ET
• Track: Phoenix Raceway (Avondale, Ariz.)
• TV: NBC