NASCAR Predictions at Phoenix: 2025 Cup Series Championship Odds & Expert Picks Today

My NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race predictions for today's race in Phoenix feature William Byron, Chase Briscoe, and Ryan Preece.

I expect a first-time champion when the race starts at 3 p.m. ET (NBC), while also backing the +10000 long shot Preece as a viable outsider. Denny Hamlin is the +310 betting favorite. 

📊 2025 NASCAR odds & favorites at Phoenix

Latest NASCAR odds via BetMGM; subject to change.

🥇 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race betting favorites 🥇

• Denny Hamlin, +310 ($10 to win $31), (Odds shortened from +350)
• Kyle Larson, +350 ($10 to win $35), (Odds shortened from +425)
• William Byron, +350 ($10 to win $35), (Odds shortened from +475)
• Ryan Blaney, +525 ($10 to win $52.50), (Odds shortened from +600)
• Chase Briscoe, +1200 ($10 to win $120), (Odds lengthened from +650)
• Christopher Bell, +1200 ($10 to win $120), (Odds lengthened from +800)
• Joey Logano, +1400 ($10 to win $140), (Odds lengthened from +1200)
• Chase Elliott, +2500 ($10 to win $250), (Odds lengthened from +1800)
• Josh Berry, +3000 ($10 to win $300), (Odds lengthened from +2500)
• Ross Chastain, +3000 ($10 to win $300), (Odds remain unchanged)
• Tyler Reddick, +3500 ($10 to win $350), (Odds lengthened from +2200)

🏁 NASCAR Championship Race predictions & preview

Four drivers will have a shot at the title after a year of hard work: Hamlin (+350), Larson (+450), Byron (+475), and Briscoe (+650). While none of them have to win the race outright to lift the championship trophy, drivers who aren’t competing for a title won’t race them as aggressively, and they’re generally safe bets to be at the front of the field.

The back-to-back-to-back champions, Team Penske, didn’t manage to secure a spot in the Championship 4, leaving this year’s race to come down to Joe Gibbs Racing vs. Hendrick Motorsports. While Penske has been noteworthy for its success on flat short tracks like Phoenix, Byron has strung together some impressive runs at this type of circuit lately.

This track should race similarly to New Hampshire and Martinsville, especially because of the tire. Goodyear is bringing the same tires to Phoenix that it brought to New Hampshire. That includes the right-side tire we just saw at Martinsville (just not the new left-side tire). We’ll lean on those two tracks as our points of comparison, which leaves a clear favorite for us to target.

🏆 Pick to win NASCAR Championship Race: William Byron (+550) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

With apologies to Hamlin, this year may belong to Byron. The pilot of the No. 24 Chevrolet ranked third-best (and best among all Championship 4 drivers) in average green-flag speed at New Hampshire. He also ranked best among all drivers in the metric at Martinsville last week, and he gapped the next-best Championship 4 driver in both events by at least two spots and 0.2 mph.

The Phoenix-specific data also points to value on Byron. Since the NextGen Era began in 2022, Byron leads the Championship 4 drivers in laps led (273) and top 10s (5). He leads all drivers in average driver rating here (112.1). He won the pole for this spring’s Phoenix race and posted the second-best driver rating (121.1), also the best among Championship 4 drivers, before finishing sixth.

There is a strong argument that betting Byron to win the actual championship, not the race itself, is safer, but the odds are far less friendly. While you’ll find Byron at +550 (15.4%) to win the race at DraftKings, which would yield a $55 profit on a $10 bet, you’ll also find him at +275 (26.7%) to win the title. That cuts our profit squarely in half.

💎 Best value bet to win NASCAR Championship Race: Chase Briscoe (+750) ⭐⭐

I rarely list drivers with odds shorter than +1000 (9.1%) as a value bet, but the NASCAR Championship Race is tricky in that drivers competing for a title get a considerable amount of slack, especially late in the event. We’ve seen just one title winner finish worse than first over a five-race sample since this race moved to Phoenix. As a result, we’re picking Briscoe as a title contender with our best NASCAR value bet.

Briscoe is the only driver in the Championship 4 to have worse odds than a driver outside of it on any sportsbook. That’s a mistake. Like Byron, Briscoe has won a race at Phoenix in the NextGen Era (the first). We didn’t get to see much of him at Martinsville due to an engine failure, and he wasn’t that fast at New Hampshire, but his No. 19 team won the pole for last year’s Championship Race.

If Briscoe can replicate the success that his predecessor, Martin Truex Jr., found here in qualifying a year ago, expect his odds of winning this race to tighten substantially. He is only a two-star value bet for the +750 (11.8%) at FanDuel, but that will still turn you a tidy $75 profit on a $10 bet.

🎯 Best long shot to win NASCAR Championship Race: Ryan Preece (+8000) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you’ve read these columns all year, you’ve seen Ryan Preece’s name a lot. He still hasn’t won, but he’s cashed plenty of plus-money top-10 tickets for us, and he was live to win last week’s race at Martinsville despite coming in at +7000 (1.4%) to do so. He ranked sixth by average green-flag speed, and that’s exactly where he finished. But his No. 60 Ford was exceptional on the long run, and if not for some late-race cautions, he could’ve found himself in Victory Lane.

The flat short tracks haven’t been as kind to RFK Racing as they’ve been to other teams, but Preece has consistently flashed upside at them. He finished 15th after ranking seventh by average green-flag speed here in the spring and has three top 10s at this type of track on the season. The only non-championship driver to have won this race at Phoenix is Ross Chastain, and Preece profiles as a similarly aggressive driver, especially with no Cup Series win to his name yet.

💰 Best NASCAR prop bet picks at Phoenix

Our player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market (including NASCAR) across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Best prop bet for NASCAR Championship Race: William Byron (-110) vs. Denny Hamlin ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I like Byron to win his race, so with him listed as an underdog on the head-to-head markets versus Hamlin (at -110) and Larson (at +100), I’m a buyer on both markets. I’ll designate the shorter of the two as my best NASCAR prop bet for Phoenix, largely due to Hamlin’s far worse relative form both here and at comparator tracks.

Byron’s impressive results and green-flag speed at New Hampshire and Martinsville far outpaced Hamlin’s. While Byron finished third (and ranked third) in the former and finished first (and ranked first) in the latter, Hamlin finished 12th (and ranked eighth) in the former and finished 35th (and ranked fifth) in the latter.

Since the NextGen Era began in 2022, Byron has been the better driver at Phoenix. Byron’s average finish (8) outpaces Hamlin’s (10.9), as do Byron’s driver rating (112.1 to 94.8), laps led total (273 to 85), and number of top 10s (5 to 3). Hamlin will do whatever it takes to win a title, but that may end up becoming a liability late in the race. A $10 bet on this prop will score you a nice $9.09 profit.

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for NASCAR Championship Race: Ryan Preece to finish top 10 (+380) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For one last time this season, let’s bet on Preece to bring his No. 60 Ford home inside the top 10. He has three top 10s on flat short tracks this season, with one coming at Iowa and two coming at Martinsville. He was also seventh by average green-flag speed here in the spring before slumping to a 15th-place result, but I’m cautiously optimistic that the new tire in use this weekend will benefit him.

The +380 (20.8%) at FanDuel is disrespectful to a driver of Preece’s caliber. In a 38-car field, the raw odds of anyone finishing inside the top 10 are 26.3%, and Preece has both the talent and equipment necessary to outrun most competitors. With 13 top 10s in 35 starts this year, Preece is cashing this prop at a rate of 37.1%. A $10 bet on this prop will score you a nice $38 profit.

🏆 Past NASCAR Phoenix Raceway winners

📺 How to watch 2025 NASCAR Championship Race at Phoenix

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 2
• Start time: 3 p.m. ET
• Track: Phoenix Raceway (Avondale, Ariz.)
• TV: NBC