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New York Liberty players look on as we offer our best Lynx vs. Liberty prediction for the WNBA Commissioner's Cup on Tuesday.
New York Liberty players look on before a WNBA game against the Chicago Sky at Wintrust Arena on June 4, 2024. Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski / USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

The New York Liberty look to defend their Commissioner's Cup title against the Minnesota Lynx, as we offer our best Lynx vs. Liberty prediction and expert picks for Tuesday based on the best WNBA odds.

The fourth annual WNBA Commissioner's Cup tips off Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET, when the defending tournament champion New York Liberty (15-3) face the Minnesota Lynx (13-3) at UBS Arena in Elmont, N.Y.

The winning team will split a $500,000 prize pool with an extra $5,000 in cryptocurrency for every player competing in the Commissioner's Cup, the annual midseason title game that has often foreshadowed eventual postseason success.

Both teams enter this matchup among the favorites by the WNBA championship odds as the Liberty aim to defend their crown from last year's tournament.

Lynx vs. Liberty expert picks

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting sites.

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Commissioner's Cup prediction

Lynx +5.5 ⭐⭐⭐

In a matchup between arguably the two best teams in the WNBA, picking the winner feels like splitting hairs. Because of that, it's hard for me not to take the points.

Both of these teams come into this matchup sizzling, with the Liberty having won 11 of their last 12 games and the Lynx riding a six-game win streak. They've met just one time this season, when Minnesota walloped New York in an 84-67 home win on May 25.

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Liberty star center Jonquel Jones scored just four points in that game, and she's been much better since. But New York could be without Courtney Vandersloot (personal) and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (knee), who combined to play 62 minutes in the first meeting.

Speaking of playing time, the Liberty have been forced to log heavy minutes for their stars to compensate for those absences, and they enter this one fresh off a road trip to Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Lynx are fairly rested and should be hungry to win their first-ever Cup and the spoils that come with it.

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel

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Commissioner's Cup player props

Sabrina Ionescu Under 29.5 pts + reb + ast ⭐⭐⭐

We may regret this one immediately, as Ionescu has been red-hot over the last week. She's scored at least 24 points with nine assists in each of her last three games while shooting a blistering 53.7% from the field and 48.3% from deep.

She's also assumed a massive burden for her team with injuries across the rotation, and I can't help but think that may catch up to her against perhaps the best defense in the WNBA. The Lynx rank first in defensive rating (90.6) while holding opponents to the league's lowest field-goal percentage (39.2%) and 3-point percentage (27.1%).

Fittingly, Ionescu endured one of her worst games of the season in Minnesota earlier this year, scoring 13 points with just three rebounds and one assist. I don't expect her to perform that poorly on Tuesday, but I don't expect a strong showing, either.

Best odds: -102 via FanDuel

Kayla McBride 4+ rebounds ⭐⭐⭐

Not every bet has to be a flashy one. Sometimes it pays to shop around and find offerings that, frankly, don't make any sense. And that certainly applies here.

If the Lynx hope to keep up on the glass with Jones and Breanna Stewart - two former MVP winners - they'll need all hands on deck. That includes McBride, who grabbed five rebounds when these teams met in late May.

She's also had four rebounds in three straight games and eight of 16 starts this season (50%), even as she's catching these ridiculous +172 odds. Those imply a mere 36.76% hit rate and returns $17.20 on a $10 wager, according to our odds converter.

Best odds: +172 via FanDuel

Commissioner's Cup first basket odds

(Odds via bet365)

Jonquel Jones (NYL)+500
Breanna Stewart (NYL)+500
Napheesa Collier (MIN)+600
Sabrina Ionescu (NYL)+600
Kayla McBride (MIN)+850
Alanna Smith (MIN)+900
Kayla Thornton (NYL)+1000
Courtney Williams (MIN)+1000
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (NYL)+1000
Bridget Carleton (MIN)+1100

This is an incredibly volatile market that, realistically, is almost impossible to predict. But that doesn't mean it's impossible to find value if you lean into that volatility.

Take Bridget Carleton, for example. She's dealing at the longest odds in this market, even though she was the first Lynx player to score when these teams met in May (Stewart scored first overall). She also scored the first bucket of the game against the Atlanta Dream on Wednesday and was Minnesota's first scorer two days earlier against the Dallas Wings.

She's probably the only bet I'd make at these +1100 odds, which carry an implied probability of 8.33% that she opens the scoring on Tuesday. Given that she's one of 10 players on the court (10%) with a penchant for taking early shots, I wouldn't mind a (small) wager on her to strike first in this one.

Best bet: Bridget Carleton (+1100 via bet365)

Commissioner's Cup betting odds

New York Liberty-5 (-110)-5.5 (-110)-5.5 (-105)-5 (-105)-5 (-110)
Minnesota Lynx+5 (-110)+5.5 (-110)+5.5 (-115)+5 (-115)+5 (-110)

How to watch WNBA Commissioner's Cup (Lynx vs. Liberty)

  • When: Tuesday, June 25
  • Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: UBS Arena (Elmont, N.Y.)
  • How to watch: Prime Video
  • Favorite: Liberty -5 (-110 via bet365)

Commissioner's Cup predictions made Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET.

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