⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, May 19
A golden role of home run betting is that the thin air of the mountains is your friend, especially when one of the best-hitting catchers leaguewide plays his home games there.
That's Hunter Goodman, who leads my home run predictions today and MLB home run picks ahead of a bullpen day for the Texas Rangers. Elsewhere, the red-hot Max Muncy gets an appealing pitching matchup, as does a resurgent Mike Trout.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 19
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Goodman home run (+326 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.65u | Has been annihilating breaking balls. |
| Max Muncy home run (+440 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.88u | Well-positioned to feast on Griffin Canning's changeup. |
| Mike Trout home run (+362 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.72u | The Athletics' Jacob Lopez has been struggling significantly with control. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.25 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+326)
Goodman is slugging .569 against breaking balls, and he especially thrives against sinkers while putting up an .824 slugging percentage. He's also slugging .652 against sliders, all while posting a 50.0% hard-hit percentage.
The fast-rising Colorado Rockies catcher who clubbed 31 homers last year and sits at 11 already will face a parade of Texas Rangers relievers during a bullpen day after Kumar Rocker was scratched. At least one at-bat will come against Tyer Alexander, whose ground ball rate is in the 85th percentile.
However, that sets up Goodman nicely, as he boasts a 1.020 OPS against groundball pitchers.
📡 SBR Edge: Mountain missiles
Goodman's hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both sit in the 86th percentile or above.
π₯ More home run picks today
Max Muncy to hit a home run (+440)
This is a mouthwatering matchup between a pitcher struggling to find the feel for one of his most-used offerings, and a slugger who's more than happy to napalm that pitch.
Max Muncy, who sits tied for 12th leaguewide with his 12 homers, has been capitalizing when opposing hurlers try to fool him with a changeup.
He'll face Griffin Canning and his 10.64 ERA. Canning throws his changeup 35% of the time to left-handed batters, and Muncy has been tattooing that pitch to the tune of a .522 slugging percentage. Canning also leans on his fastball against lefties, and Muncy is slugging .565 against heaters, all according to Baseball Savant.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Mike Trout to hit a home run (+362)
Mike Trout has predictably cooled off after a sizzling start, but the Athletics' pitching staff is here to cure what ails him.
Specifically starter Jacob Lopez, whose command disappears for stretches, leading to a bloated 6.0 BB/9 and plenty of chances to square up misplaced pitches. That lack of precision has also translated to an .861 OPS allowed this season across eight starts, up from .721 last year.
Trout may be scuffling lately with a .467 OPS over the past week, but his engine is still hot under the hood. The finally healthy slugger boasts an expected slugging percentage and barrel rate in the 97th percentile or above.
π Best home run parlay picks today
The connection here is simple. Today we're rolling with sluggers facing starting pitchers whose command can be sporadic at best, and that especially applies to Muncy and Trout.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Hunter Goodman home run (+300)
- Max Muncy home run (+440)
- Mike Trout home run (+360)
Best odds: +9836 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 2u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-88-1 | -10.54 units β | -20.7% β |
| Home run picks | 11-55-0 | -3.43 units β | -23.8% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-15 | -0.90 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
The Goodman pick was admittedly far juicier before Rocker was scratched, as he remains a launchpad. But there's still plenty to like there, especially against a Rangers bullpen set to be taxed heavily tonight at Coors Field.
If you want to invest a little more though, Muncy is the target. Canning has been shelled for six earned runs allowed across his last two starts, and his pitch mix aligns perfectly with Muncy's strengths.
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