⚾ Braves vs. Marlins Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, May 19

The Miami Marlins look to keep the momentum going when they host the Atlanta Braves at loanDepot park after yesterday's series-opening blowout win. Today’s contest has an early 4:10 p.m. ET scheduled first pitch (ESPN Unlimited) as a pair of southpaws in Martin Perez and Braxton Garrett oppose each other on the mound. The Braves are a -140 betting favorite.

My Braves vs. Marlins prediction calls for an emphatic Atlanta victory given its success against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Despite that, I’m making a contrarian play on Garrett’s strikeout total in just his second start of the season, while finding value in Drake Baldwin to homer again off Marlins pitching with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Braves vs. Marlins picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.42 units

🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Marlins?

Atlanta owns the second-best run differential in the majors (plus-86), so I expect it to pull off the road victory even if Miami is a respectable 15-12 at home. 

Score prediction: Braves 6, Marlins 3

💰 Braves vs. Marlins prediction & best bet

Braves ML (-140)

Entering this series, Atlanta was 22-8 in its previous 30 games, while averaging better than five runs per game with a .260 team batting average and .446 slugging percentage. The Braves pitching staff also only allowed 98 runs in that span, aiding a plus-58 run differential.

Miami is just 11-19 against Atlanta since the start of 2024, going 6-7 at home and 5-12 on road versus the Braves over that span. Atlanta is also the only team NL team 10-plus games over .500 against left-handed starting pitchers (14-4), while Miami is a disappointing 5-8 in that split.

🔥 Best Braves vs. Marlins player prop bet

Braxton Garrett Over 4.5 strikeouts (+130)

Braxton Garrett’s first big league start in 696 days was understandably rocky, as he allowed five runs and five walks while throwing just 64 pitches in 1 ⅓ innings. The lefty did record three of his five outs via strikeout, and his Triple-A statistics suggest he has a high strikeout ceiling as long as he can avoid allowing a crooked number early. 

At the end of April, Garrett was one of two MiLB pitchers with fewer than five hits allowed. At the time, he and Seth Hernandez from the Pirates each had an ERA under 0.80 with 17-plus innings pitched, and had a walk rate under 10% while allowing a .080 OBA or lower.

Garrett had a 25.5% strikeout rate before his call-up, making this projected total too low even though Atlanta has struck out at the third-lowest rate among NL teams against southpaws.

💣 Braves vs. Marlins home run prediction

Drake Baldwin to hit a home run (+565)

Drake Baldwin entered this series batting .385 with 20 RBI in 14 career games against the Marlins. Those 20 RBI are his most against any other team.

Baldwin thrives in lefty-lefty matchups. He has a .342/.429/.658 slash line against southpaws compared to a .278/.364/.470 slash line against right-handed pitchers. He has also hit seven of his 13 home runs against lefties in 42 fewer at-bats than against right-handed pitching.

More of Baldwin’s home runs have come on the road than at home. And he ended last week with a .912 OPS against lefties, which was tied for the fourth-best OPS in lefty-lefty matchups for a batter in his first two seasons combined (min. 175 PA).

🚀 Braves vs. Marlins same-game parlay

Garrett exceeding his projected strikeout total does not necessarily directly impact Atlanta's ability to cover the run line, which it has done 40 times in its last 50 road games (+32.45 units/51% ROI). And even though Baldwin gets a mouth-watering matchup against a left-handed pitcher, I'm swapping my home run pick for him to simply drive in a run as the third leg of this parlay, given his 20 RBI in 15 games against Miami.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Braves vs. Marlins: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Once a team's moneyline odds are steeper than -150, I usually draw the line there between a moneyline and run line wager. So despite Atlanta owning a ridiculous 40-10 record against the spread in its last 50 road games, I'm going the safer route with a moneyline play given the relatively inexpensive price. 

I'm also willing to keep Baldwin's home run prop wager at 0.25 units compared to my other one-unit plays, despite him entering the week with the same OPS this early in his career in lefty-lefty matchups as Ted Williams.

📊 Live Braves vs. Marlins odds

Atlanta is one of the most popular favorites of the day, garnering 71% of the early wagers. That is why it is no surprise to see the line shading in its favor (one example is BetMGM moving from an opening number of -140 to -145). If the movement does not continue to be one-sided despite egregious betting splits, that would signal sharp money is on the home underdogs.

Caesars is the only of our best sports betting sites remaining with an O/U of 8 runs, while BetMGM, FanDuel, bet365, and DraftKings all ticked up to 8.5 from an opening number of 8. The line movement has as much to do with the 2/1 betting splits in favor of the Over as the fact that the two teams combined for 12 runs in yesterday's series opener.

📈 Braves vs. Marlins betting trends

🚑 Braves vs. Marlins injuries

📺 How to watch Braves vs. Marlins

• Date: Tuesday, May 19
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: loanDepot park (Miami)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Braves starter: Martin Perez (2-2, 2.25 ERA)
• Marlins starter: Braxton Garrett (0-1, 33.75 ERA)