⚾ Blue Jays vs. Yankees Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 19)

The New York Yankees are a narrow favorite to take the second game this season between two bitter AL East rivals that met last fall, with the Toronto Blue Jays prevailing in the ALDS.

Now the Yanks hold the upper hand both in the Blue Jays vs. Yankees win probability from the prediction market apps, and during the season so far with the much superior record (29-19 to Toronto's 21-26).  

But the strikeout factory that is Dylan Cease has been a force for the Jays, and he'll oppose Will Warren while trying to overcome the Yankees' 54% probability of victory.

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🏆 Who will win Blue Jays vs. Yankees? Live MLB win probability

Cease being able to pile up strikeouts isn't a new trick for him, but he's amassing quite the mountain of punchouts even by his standards.

The righty is posting a career best K/9 of 12.9 (second in MLB), up notably from an already absurd 11.5 last year. The Yankees' offense excels in so very many areas, but strikeout avoidance isn't one. A power-focused lineup has struck out the eighth-most times MLB-wide, which will play right in Cease's strength.

That's why although the margin is close in a market showing the Yankees as only slight favorites at a 54% win probability, it's arguable the wrong team is favored amid nearly $65,000 in trading volume. That's especially true given New York's recent play.

Yes, the Yankees battled back to take the first contest 7-6 in this four-game series last night while barely holding on after giving up a run in the bottom of the ninth. But the Bronx Bombers had lost seven of their previous nine games prior to Monday, averaging just three runs per outing during that stretch.

My prediction: Blue Jays win. The Jays' offense has been wildly inconsistent, but Cease won't need much run support if opponents keep slugging a minuscule .130 off his slider, according to Baseball Savant.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Blue Jays vs. Yankees?

Aaron Judge is annually among the league leaders in home runs, and this season is no exception while he sits third with 16 dingers. He also paces pretty much every home run market that bears his name, and this one too while getting a whopping 29% probability of going deep.

But that's far too steep of a price to pay with Cease on the mound for much of tonight's affair, and he's allowed a mere one homer all season across 52 1/3 innings. Put that among the many reasons he's one of the Cy Young odds leaders.

Cease's one flaw has been an inability to go deep into games. But he's fixed that recently too while logging seven innings in three straight starts, all while giving up just four runs total.

So it's difficult to back a Yankees hitter in this market. You need to cringe while locking in on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. too given his immense slump, which includes an astonishingly bad .143/.245/.214 slash line across the past two weeks.

But Guerrero is just one game removed from starting to climb from that hole with a home run. And while Warren has been effective, the contact he does allow is loud. His 91.4 mph average exit velocity sits in the bottom 9% leaguewide.

My prediction: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run. Even amid his stumbling, Guerrero's nearly unmatched eye and bat-to-ball skills give him an opportunity every plate appearance, as his 11.1% strikout rate rests in the top 4% leaguewide. For more home run analysis, see my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Blue Jays vs. Yankees?

This market is a tossup, which is baffling due to the presence of Cease alone and the Yankees' strikeout tendencies. Warren isn't quite on Cease's level in that regard, but he's plenty capable himself while boasting an 11.2 K/9.

For all their brute force and power, the Yankees' offense had fallen back to earth prior to last night. And despite pushing the Yankees offensively on Monday while scoring six runs of their own, Toronto still enters tonight with the league's 25th-ranked team OPS.

That poor slugging is partly due to crippling injuries, but also a lack power from several regulars. Most notably George Springer, whose toe issue may still be impacting him, and contributing to a putrid .204 expected batting average.

These are two of the league's better YRFI teams, with the Yankees sitting sixth (28-20) and Toronto 12th (24-23). But the circumstances with Cease on the mound and two sputtering offenses align better for the NRFI.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Cease has allowed one run or fewer in five of his nine starts. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Blue Jays vs. Yankees win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Yankees

• Date: Tuesday, May 19
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (New York)
• TV: TBS
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Blue Jays starter: Dylan Cease (3-1, 2.41 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Will Warren (5-1, 3.42 ERA)