The World Series is tied at a game apiece, as the Arizona Diamondbacks bounced back from a soul-crushing defeat in the first contest to thrash the Texas Rangers in Game 2.
With the series moving to Arizona, will the Rangers' big bats do damage in the desert? Or will the Diamondbacks' staff silence the potent lineup for the second straight game?
To accompany our Rangers vs. Diamondbacks predictions, here are our top MLB player props for Rangers vs. Diamondbacks World Series Game 3 (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
MLB player props: World Series Game 3
- Evan Carter Over 1.5 total bases vs. Diamondbacks (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Max Scherzer Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Diamondbacks (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Brandon Pfaadt Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Rangers (+102 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
- Corey Seager Over Lourdes Gurriel total bases (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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World Series Game 3 player props
Evan Carter Over 1.5 total bases vs. Diamondbacks (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Rangers' talented rookie outfielder has put baseball fans on notice throughout these playoffs, managing a .313/.431/.542 slash line across 14 postseason games thus far. He went 3-for-9 in the first two World Series games in Texas, recording two doubles.
Carter dominated right-handed pitching during the regular season, while Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt had a slightly more difficult time when facing lefties. That makes for a perfect recipe for Carter to record either multiple hits or take one for extra bases.
On Monday, we're backing Carter to go Over 1.5 total bases at very generous +160 odds with bet365. Four of our best sports betting apps are offering this market, with FanDuel providing the worst price at +110. DraftKings is your next-best option after bet365, as its +145 number still shows plenty of value. Caesars and BetRivers both hover around +130 for the Over on Carter's total bases prop.
Based on NumberFire's projections, we're getting roughly 25% positive expected value by placing this at bet365. In comparison, that number drops to just under 18% if we head to DraftKings, and it drops even further to around 10% if we use BetRivers' +130 number.
For those looking for a further edge, Pinnacle (one of the most respected trading teams in sports betting) opened this line at Over 1.5 at +145 before shifting it to Over 0.5 total bases at -205. The fact that we're getting a price 15 points better than that initial Pinnacle offering is a good sign that we're getting value on Carter in Game 3.
Max Scherzer Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Diamondbacks (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Max Scherzer has struggled throughout the playoffs, failing to reach the fifth inning in both starts. However, the future Hall of Famer was dominant with Texas following his trade there at the deadline, before he suffered an injury that kept him sidelined for more than a month. We're backing him on Monday to rebound from those shaky performances vs. the Houston Astros as he gets closer to being fully healthy.
Despite the 39-year-old experiencing some decline across the board in 2023, he managed an impressive 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 152 2/3 innings with the Rangers and New York Mets. Scherzer still possesses an ability to miss bats, as evidenced by his 13.3% swinging-strike rate this season.
Scherzer was rocked by the Astros in his two starts, serving up two home runs in the process. However, Chase Field was one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball this season by Statcast's Park Factor, and it played that way in the NLCS: there were only 21 total runs scored during three games in Arizona. Scherzer will greatly benefit from that, especially considering Texas' Globe Life Field is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in MLB.
On Monday, Scherzer owns an average strikeout projection of 5.9 when taking data from both NumberFire and Ballpark Pal. Based on that number, we're getting nearly 40% positive expected value by placing this with BetMGM and its +100 odds. Similarly, FanDuel and bet365 are also offering Over 4.5 strikeouts at +100. The worst number is Caesars' -108.
When comparing this to Pinnacle's price, there isn't a huge edge, as it lists the Over on this prop at -103. However, something to note is that the Over has been hit multiple times at Pinnacle when the price reached -106, which helps show us that our +100 is worthy of a bet.
Brandon Pfaadt Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Rangers (+102 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Pfaadt has been an absolute stud since a rocky start against the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild-card round. He threw 4 1/3 innings of shutout ball against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS and then managed 16 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings across two starts in the NLCS. The right-hander is peaking at the right time, and he's set for another impressive performance at home in Game 3.
Across three projection models (NumberFire, Ballpark Pal, and FantasyPros), Pfaadt's average strikeout projection is 4.84, which isn't especially promising on a 4.5 strikeout line. However, BetRivers' +102 odds do provide us with just over 6% positive expected value. Additionally, Pinnacle is offering the Over on this prop at -114, with the longest number at any given time being -110, which was hit to the current price in quick order.
An additional indicator of the value at BetRivers is the odds offered at our other best sports betting sites. FanDuel is at -118, while DraftKings is slightly better at -105. BetRivers is the only book at which you can get the Over at better than even money.
Between Pfaadt's recent dominance and the value on this price, we land on our second strikeout Over for Game 3 of the World Series.
Corey Seager Over Lourdes Gurriel total bases (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The reasoning for this bet is pretty straightforward. We're getting the better hitter - and arguably the best hitter in the series - in the head-to-head at +100, and the numbers back it up.
At Pinnacle, Corey Seager is priced at -114 to go Over 1.5 total bases, while Lourdes Gurriel is trading at +137 to go Over the same total. Along with the huge difference in odds, Seager's projections also show we're on the right side of this bet.
Based on Seager's projections at NumberFire, we're actually getting roughly 10% positive expected value on Over 1.5 total bases even at BetRivers, which offers the shortest odds among our best sportsbooks at -129.
Meanwhile, Gurriel's projections at NumberFire actually show negative expected value on that aforementioned +137 price for his Over. In fact, for those looking to get value on a Gurriel total bases prop, Under 1.5 total bases at -159 via BetRivers provides bettors with 3% positive expected value.
Furthermore, for those without a specific team to support in this series, this provides an exciting reason to passionately cheer for one side, adding an extra layer of engagement to the competition.
Rangers-Diamondbacks player props made 10/30/2023 at 11 a.m. ET.
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