The Texas Rangers are one win away from capturing their first-ever World Series, and we offer our top Rangers vs. Diamondbacks MLB player props based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.
Tuesday night began with news that the Rangers will be without ALCS MVP Adolis Garcia and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer for the remainder of the series. It ended with Texas absolutely throttling the Arizona Diamondbacks en route to an 11-7 win.
Now, with a 3-1 stranglehold on the series, Texas is the massive favorite to by the World Series odds.
Will hitting dominate again on Wednesday, or could we be in for a pitcher's duel with both teams sending out their aces?
In conjunction with our Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction, here are our top MLB player props for Rangers vs. Diamondbacks World Series Game 5 (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
MLB player props: World Series Game 5
- Ketel Marte Over Mitch Garver total bases (+120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 total bases (+145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Tommy Pham Over 1.5 total bases (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
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World Series Game 5 player props
Ketel Marte Over Mitch Garver total bases (+120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
This is going to look mightily familiar if you saw our player props for Games 3 and 4. But, as the saying goes, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Diamondbacks hitting machine Ketel Marte came through for us in this exact spot in Game 4, and we're betting on him to outdo Rangers catcher/DH Mitch Garver once again on Wednesday.
Marte has now hit safely in 20 straight playoff games following his two base knocks on Tuesday, and we're getting juicy plus-money odds for him to continue his dominance. Meanwhile, Garver is struggling in the World Series, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in Game 4. He's managed just one hit in this series to Marte's five.
The numbers support this bet, too. Based on Marte's projections at NumberFire, we're getting a ton of value on his Over 1.5 total bases prop on Wednesday. With BetMGM's price of +115 (the longest odds among our best sports betting sites), Over backers are getting just less than 15% positive expected value. Meanwhile, Garver profiles very differently in Game 5.
First, Garver's odds to go Over 1.5 total bases are much longer, with the shortest price being Caesars' +117 but most books hovering around +135. Caesars also has the shortest odds on Marte's Over at +106, illustrating the implied difference between their chances to go Over.
Secondly, based on NumberFire's projections, the value on Garver comes via the Under on his total bases prop. If you were to play his Over at bet365 (offering the best price at +140), you'd be doing so with 12% negative expected value.
For those who might be hesitant about these direct competition markets, you can consider Marte's total bases going Over. Nevertheless, opting for him to surpass Garver offers an extra five points of value, and statistical data indicates that he is likely to outperform Garver.
Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 total bases (+145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno has mostly struggled at the plate during the World Series, and he was also just fine in the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies - though Toronto Blue Jays fans would have you convinced he's Barry Bonds. However, he managed two hits in Game 4, and we're seeing some solid value on his total bases Over on Wednesday thanks to these inflated odds.
As has been the case throughout the World Series, one of the primary tools we're using is simply shopping the odds at our best sportsbooks. DraftKings offers Moreno Over 1.5 total bases at +140 and BetMGM comes in at +135. Pinnacle, one of the most respected trading teams in sports betting, has it priced at +137 after opening it at +140. This shows us we have an edge with bet365's price, even if it's small (that's really the best you can do during a series like this).
Based on Moreno's projections at NumberFire, we're getting 5.6% positive expected value by hitting the Over at bet365. Comparatively, that number drops to less than 3.5% at DraftKings and just better than 2% at Pinnacle.
Finally, the baseball fan in me has to acknowledge the fact that this Arizona team is fighting for its season on Wednesday. It's over if the Diamondbacks lose, so it'll be all hands on deck. Expect the young catcher to help the cause.
Tommy Pham Over 1.5 total bases (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Continuing with our theme of backing Diamondbacks hitters to do whatever they can to force this series back to Texas, we'll ride with one of Arizona's best hitters this series.
Tommy Pham is batting a ridiculous .500 this series, with one homer and three doubles. He continued his strong play in Game 4 with a 1-for-3 effort.
On Wednesday, we're backing Pham to go Over 1.5 total bases, mostly because the price is right. These +160 odds via bet365 don't represent a complete outlier (BetMGM has +150 for the Over), but they do provide us with much more value than we probably should be getting.
Based on Pham's projections at NumberFire, we're getting nearly 10% positive expected value by placing this at bet365. In comparison, that figure drops down to 5.5% with BetMGM's second-best odds. If you bet Pham's Over at DraftKings, you're actually getting slight negative expected value, and BetRivers is down at nearly 6% negative expected value with its +123 odds.
Pinnacle offers a better price than all of our best sportsbooks other than bet365, but it's still nine points worse (+151) than what we're getting this Over at.
Rangers-Diamondbacks player props made 11/1/2023 at 9 a.m. ET.
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