The Texas Rangers' win on Monday pushed them to a 2-1 lead in the World Series against the Arizona Diamondbacks and also set an MLB record for postseason road victories, as we make our best Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction based on the best MLB odds for the World Series Game 4 showdown.
The Texas Rangers improved to an MLB-record 9-0 on the road in the postseason this year with a 3-1 victory in Game 3 on Monday. The Rangers are one road win away from tying the 2012 Los Angeles Kings for the most consecutive road wins in the same postseason among MLB/NHL/NBA teams, per Sportsnet Stats. Texas has an all-time 2-5 record on the road in the World Series.
The Arizona Diamondbacks suffered their first World Series home loss in franchise history in Game 3, bringing their record at Chase Field in the Fall Classic to 4-1. However, Arizona has lost two of its five home games in this postseason.
When entering Game 3 with the series tied at one in best-of-seven World Series history, the team that takes a 2-1 lead wins the series 66.7% of the time. As such, the Rangers are once again heavy favorites by the World Series odds.
In conjunction with our Rangers vs. Diamondbacks player props, here is our best Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction for Game 4 of the World Series (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction: World Series Game 4
Diamondbacks ML (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Like in Game 4 of the NLCS, in which the Diamondbacks won 6-5 at home against the Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona sends left-hander Joe Mantiply to the mound as an opener for a bullpen game. Four of eight Diamondbacks relievers allowed one earned run in that game, which is always the risk teams take when relying on several arms to piece together nine innings.
However, we expect manager Torey Lovullo to bridge the gap to his three most reliable relievers (Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, and Paul Sewald) differently. Those three have combined for a 1.47 ERA this postseason, which effectively makes this a five-inning game with a massive advantage to the Diamondbacks if they lead heading into the sixth inning.
The Diamondbacks are 7-0 when scoring first this postseason, and they should be able to get on the board first against Rangers southpaw Andrew Heaney, who was thrust into this start unexpectedly after Jon Gray was needed in relief of the injured Max Scherzer last night. Heaney has allowed five runs on 10 hits and four walks in nine postseason innings this season. And while Heaney induced many more ground balls as the season went on (19 home runs allowed over the first four months, four home runs allowed over the final two months), Arizona’s offense is predicated on getting on base and using its speed, so it will not need to rely on power to be effective.
Texas averaged 6.5 runs per game on the road in the postseason heading into Game 3. Though it improved its run differential to +33 in road games last night, Chase Field seemed to negate much of its power, especially Mitch Garver, whose late-inning blast to center field would have been a home run in 19 MLB stadiums. In addition, the Rangers are getting nothing from their 5-9 hitters. After combining to bat .118 with two RBIs and two runs scored in Games 1-2, the bottom of Texas’s lineup went 1-for-17 with one run scored in Game 3.
The line moved considerably in Arizona’s favor once the starting pitchers were announced, and we agree with that line movement as we expect the Diamondbacks to even the series.
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Rangers vs. Diamondbacks best odds
With four of our best sports betting apps either at a virtual pick’em with -110 moneyline odds on each side or being juiced to Arizona (-115 at DraftKings), FanDuel is our go-to shop as Diamondbacks backers, which saves us at least $4 compared to its competitors. We would play the Diamondbacks up to -118 and will jump on FanDuel’s generous odds while they last.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks odds
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks odds analysis
DraftKings moved from Arizona -108 to -115 overnight, while BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 all similarly moved from Arizona -105 to -110. The Diamondbacks have attracted 71% of all early moneyline wagers despite losing six of their last seven games against American League opponents.
All sportsbooks are in unison with a total of 9.5 runs. FanDuel is juiced the least to the Under at -115, while Caesars is on the high end with a price of -125 to back that side. The Under is 7-1 in Arizona’s last eight home games.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks game info: World Series Game 4
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 31 at 8:03 p.m. ET
- Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
Rangers-Diamondbacks pick made 10/31/2023 at 6:41 a.m. ET.
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