The Texas Rangers look to continue their road dominance in Game 4 of the World Series, and we offer our top Rangers vs. Diamondbacks MLB player props based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.
The Texas Rangers were once again road warriors this postseason with a 3-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 3. However, starting pitcher Max Scherzer was forced to exit the contest early, and probable Game 4 starter Jon Gray was used in relief. As a result, we have a bit of a whacky pitching matchup on Tuesday.
With the Diamondbacks going with a bullpen game and the Rangers opting to entrust struggling southpaw Andrew Heaney with the start, will hitting dominate the day? Or will these teams still find a way to shut each other down?
Here are our top MLB player props for Rangers vs. Diamondbacks World Series Game 4 (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
MLB player props: World Series Game 4
- Ketel Marte Over Mitch Garver total bases (+105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Evan Carter Over 1.5 total bases (+138 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
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World Series Game 4 player props
Ketel Marte Over Mitch Garver total bases (+105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
We're going back to the well after finding success with this market in Game 3. On Monday, we backed Corey Seager to record more total bases than Lourdes Gurriel, and the Rangers superstar shortstop came through in a big way, launching a two-run homer in the contest to finish with four total bases. For Game 4, we're changing allegiances and riding with a Diamondbacks hitter.
Rangers catcher/DH Mitch Garver has had a solid postseason, though he's slowed down with each series. After destroying the Baltimore Orioles and coming through with some big hits against the Houston Astros, Garver is just 1-for-11 through three World Series games. It doesn't get any easier for him, either, as Arizona will likely be mixing and matching relievers and is unlikely to feed Garver an exploitable left-handed pitcher.
Meanwhile, well, you should know about Ketel Marte. He owns an incredible 19-game postseason hitting streak, recording another base knock on Monday after breaking the record in Game 2.
On Tuesday, we're backing Marte to record more total bases than Garver, and we can reference a few pieces of data that suggest this is a good bet.
The second piece of data we have is one of the best free tools for any bettor to use: the odds. Across all of our best sports betting sites, Marte's odds of going Over 1.5 total bases are far shorter than Garver's. He's as short as -119 via Caesars to go Over. Pinnacle, one of the most respected trading teams in sports betting, similarly has the Over priced at -116, and it's moved from its opening odds of -111.
Garver's shortest odds to go Over 1.5 total bases are +123 via Caesars, showing a significant discrepancy between their implied probability to record two or more total bases.
This is one of my favorite markets at bet365, as it offers every option at even or plus money. We'll head there for these enticing +105 odds.
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
This is a little counterintuitive from a pure baseball perspective, with the Rangers starting Heaney and Corbin Carroll notoriously struggling against left-handed pitching. However, we have a couple of reasons why we're making this bet.
First, we're going shopping once again. Carroll's odds to go Over 1.5 total bases vary across our best sportsbooks, with Caesars offering the worst price at +104 (FanDuel has Carroll to record two-plus total bases at -115 because it doesn't offer the option to take the Under, so avoid total bases props there).
As we continue our shopping spree, we see DraftKings and BetMGM have this prop at a competitive +140, but those are still inferior to the number we're getting at bet365. Pinnacle has Carroll to go Over 1.5 total bases at +141, showing us that DraftKings and BetMGM are likely closer to what the actual price should be and revealing our edge at bet365.
Based on Carroll's projections at NumberFire, we're getting just less than 20% positive expected value by placing this at bet365. If we bet it at one of the books hovering in the +140 range, that number drops to around 15% positive expected value. This may indicate that all books are lower on Carroll than they should be, due to the fact that the Rangers are trotting out a lefty.
Ignore the noise and trust the numbers. In a series like this, with the spotlight shining bright and edges few and far between, jump at value when it presents itself.
Evan Carter Over 1.5 total bases (+138 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
It was so nice, so let's do it twice. On Monday, we took Rangers rookie Evan Carter to go Over 1.5 total bases at +160. These odds aren't quite as good, but they're still showing plenty of value.
For everything Carter did prior to Game 3, check out yesterday's article (hint: he had been really good). He continued that stellar play by recording two more hits on Monday, and he remains among the contenders to win World Series MVP.
On Tuesday, Carter's projections via NumberFire show that we're getting nearly 15% positive expected value by placing this bet at BetRivers, the only one of our best sportsbooks that's offering a total of 1.5 total bases. There's still value on bet365's offering of Over 0.5 total bases at -175, but it isn't quite as good as what we're getting here.
Pinnacle once again has Carter's line at 0.5 total bases, and, as was the case Monday, its price is shorter (-185) than those offered at our best sportsbooks. Therefore, if you wanted to ignore the projections and base this bet solely off of odds shopping, you can still identify the value on Carter's Over at bet365.
However, by combining that odds shopping with a trusted projection model, we see the best bet is this one. Remember, use all of the tools at your disposal, especially when the books are able to hone in on a single matchup and limit their mistakes on the prices.
Rangers-Diamondbacks player props made 10/31/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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