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Gleyber Torres reacts after hitting a solo home run against the Boston Red Sox as we look at New York Yankees predictions and odds for 2023..
Gleyber Torres of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a solo home run during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images via AFP.

Love ‘em or leave ‘em, the New York Yankees move the needle, garner international headlines, and are set to take a run at a 28th World Series title in 2023. Here’s sports betting analyst Neil Parker’s analysis New York Yankees predictions for 2023 based on the best MLB odds

Spring training is underway and summer is just around the corner. The Yankees are also once again World Series contenders with reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge back in pinstripes after signing a $360 million, nine-year deal.

After New York faded in the second half last season and was swept in the American League Championship Series by the Houston Astros, it’s fair to question what’s in store for the storied franchise in 2023.

Here is our look at the best odds and our top 2023 New York Yankee predictions.

Yankees odds 2023 

World Series champions+750+800 🔥+750+750 +650 ❄️
American League champions+360 🔥+320 ❄️+350+350 +325 
AL East champions+110 +110+100 ❄️+115 +120 🔥

Check out our 2023 World Series Odds.

Yankees wins total odds

Over 94.5 (+100)Over 94.5 (+104)Over 94.5 (-110)Over 94.5 (-110)Over 94.5 (-110)
Under 94.5 (-120)Under 94.5 (-128)Under 94.5 (-110)Under 94.5 (-110)Under 94.5 (-110)

Yankees predictions: Wins total Over/Under

Under 94.5 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet)

Above all else, I consider it especially telling that the Under has the higher vig through FanDuel and DraftKings. Add that the Yankees are a public team, and the Empire State consistently takes the largest sports betting handle in the U.S., and oddsmakers are showing their hand.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this total dropped leading into the season. The Yankees went 35-35 after the All-Star Break last year, after all.

Furthermore, what exactly changed during the offseason to expect New York to finish 28 games over .500 after their second-half performance in 2022?

I value the addition of left-handed starting pitcher Carlos Rodon, but he’s injury prone and has topped 150 innings only twice through his eight-year career. New York lost veterans Jameson Taillon and Jordan Montgomery during the offseason, and second-year Yankee Frankie Montas (shoulder) is set to miss a large chunk of the season following arthroscopic shoulder surgery.

If starter Luis Severino runs into his own injury troubles again, and Nestor Cortes isn’t as sharp as he was last season, this rotation could quickly prove to be thin behind Cy Young frontrunner Gerrit Cole. 

The AL East is no walk in the park, either. The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles are both better entering 2023, and is there a peskier team in baseball than the Tampa Bay Rays? No one should expect the arch nemesis Boston Red Sox to lay down for the Brox Bombers, either.

Finally, I prefer Unders in year-long counting statistics, too. A lot has to go right for any team to win 95 games, and it won’t take much to go wrong for this to quickly become an out-of-reach win total for New York.

Yankees predictions: Player prop

Gerrit Cole to lead MLB in strikeouts (+575 via PointsBet)

I can’t believe we’re landing this large of a number in this betting market.

Cole has paced the majors in strikeouts twice since moving to the AL in 2018, and he has the most strikeouts (1,196) and pitched the second-most innings (867 2/3) during the five-year stretch. Add ranks of second in strikeouts per nine innings (12.4) and third in strikeout percentage (34.9%), and he’s the prototype of the modern-strikeout artist. 

Even better, he made at least 30 starts in each of the past five full seasons, too.

Cole is also able to pad his punchout totals by pitching deeper into games because he allows so few baserunners. His 0.99 WHIP ranks fourth in baseball during the noted stretch dating back to the 2018 campaign.

Because of Cole’s durability, I’m expecting him to hang with the strikeout leaders all season. So, landing odds this long enables us to corner this market and opens hedge possibilities down the line to nearly guarantee a profit if it turns into a two- or three-pitcher race to pace the league in Ks.

My colleague Andrew Brennan also outlined his rationale for this wager in his MLB strikeout leaders primer.

Yankees predictions: Player prop

Gleyber Torres more regular season RBI than Jeff McNeil (+105 via Caesars)

The wrong player is the betting favorite in this head-to-head market, and aside from Torres and McNeil both primarily playing the keystone, there’s little similarity between the two.

Torres was a blue-chip prospect with five-tool upside who already has 2,336 plate appearances on his resume entering his sixth season at just 26-years-old. McNeil, meanwhile, is a 30-year-old late-bloomer with less MLB experience.

Despite McNeil leading the majors in batting average (.326) last season, I see two glaring statistical weaknesses.

First, he finished sixth in the majors in BABIP (.353) last year and his hard-hit percentage has dropped in each of the past three seasons to a career-low 24.7% in 2022. For reference, McNeil’s 24.7 mark ranked 119th out of 130 qualified hitters.

I also have Torres projected for nearly 10 more RBI this season than McNeil despite similar projections for games played and plate appearances.

PlayerGames Plate appearancesRBI 
Gleyber Torres137.6586.174.2
Jeff McNeil140.6585.864.3

With Torres just entering his prime, and McNeil set for statistical correction, I’m shocked we’re landing plus-money odds to back the man in pinstripes to finish the 2023 season with more RBI than his cross-town rival.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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