Cardinals vs. Angels Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 20)
There certainly isn't a deadlock in the standings between these two teams, but there is one when we look at the Cardinals vs. Angels win probability from the prediction market apps.
It's a tossup, and Jose Soriano being on the mound for Los Angeles will have that effect. There's still plenty of intrigue in this matchup too, with the first pitch flying at 10:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). The game is a key possible trade showcase for Soriano, and for the Cardinals, they can't pass on any chance to pile up wins and stay in the NL playoff hunt.
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🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Angels? Live MLB win probability
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There are bad teams, and then several rungs below that lie the 2026 Los Angeles Angels. They've won just twice in their last 15 games and enter tonight with the worst record in MLB at 39-61.
The Angels have long cast ahead, and they're busy trying to see who to sell at the trade deadline and how to maximize that return. One of those valuable potential trade pieces is Soriano, who still gives the Angels a rare chance to win every fifth day when he's on the mound, as he will tonight.
Soriano's mere presence is the primary reason why the win probabilities are deadlocked at a coin flip entering this contest amid nearly $178,000 in trading volume. He thrives through inducing both weak swings and even weaker contact when it's made.
The righty's hard-hit rate allowed has fallen from 48.2% last year to just 36.4% now, according to Baseball Savant. That's largely the product of a curveball that regularly embarrasses hitters. It's the best among curveballs MLB-wide in whiff percentage (45.7%).
My prediction: Angels win. Soriano can keep being an efficient run suppressor through his 90th percentile groundball rate.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Cardinals vs. Angels?
| Hitter | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 21% |
| Jo Adell | 15% |
Yes, at a glance it seems puzzling that no Cardinals sluggers are listed in this market, especially after Jordan Walker just won the Home Run Derby. But that's due to Soriano's groundball ways and nearly unparalleled ability to limit home runs. His K/9 sits at just 1.0 this season after finishing at 0.6 last year.
Instead, we're left with Mike Trout leading the way here. He's clubbed 18 homers thus far, and although he predictably hasn't been able to maintain his torrid start when the veteran hit 10 homers with a .999 OPS in March and April, the underlying metrics still show the Trout renaissance is alive and well.
He sits fifth leaguewide in barrels per plate appearance percentage (10.6%), and the outfielder's swing decisions and plate discipline remain top-level. Trout also boasts a 97th percentile chase rate.
My prediction: Mike Trout to hit a home run. Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy throws his sinker 25% of the time to righties, and Trout is posting a .569 expected slugging against that pitch. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my best home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Cardinals vs. Angels?
This market has been staying relatively steady with only minor meandering between a 49% probability of a first-inning run and 51%. That feels a bit high considering Soriano's involvement.
Leahy is due for significant regression, with his expected ERA of 5.38 sitting far higher than the hurler's actual mark of 3.73. His average exit velocity allowed is also among the worst leaguewide at 91.9 mph, too.
But that descent back down to Earth seems unlikely to begin tonight against a sputtering Angels offense that sits 24th in slugging and 23rd in OPS. Los Angeles trots out four regulars in its lineup with an expected batting average of .235 or below, too.
My prediction: No run in the first inning. The Angels also lead MLB in strikeouts, with Jorge Soler and Zach Neto striking out over 31% of the time. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of my best NRFI bets today.
📊 Cardinals vs. Angels win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 50% | 49.5% | ↑ 0.5% |
| Angels | 50% | 50.5% | ↓ 0.5% |
📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Angels
- Date: Monday, July 20
- First pitch: 10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Angel Stadium (Los Angeles)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Cardinals starter: Kyle Leahy (7-4, 3.73 ERA)
- Angels starter: Jose Soriano (8-6, 3.49 ERA)
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