MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Sunday, July 19
The Washington Nationals’ top-scoring offense exploded for 23 runs on Friday in the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, which prompts one of their sluggers as one of my top home run predictions today.
Jac Caglianone is my lone All-Star that is a part of today’s four-pack of plays, and I round out my MLB home run picks with other value plays on Jake Burger and Josh Bell, each of whom have homered off of today’s opposing pitcher.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 19
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell to hit a home run (+600 via BetMGM) | 0.25u → 1.5u | Shota Imanaga's home numbers are worse across the board compared to his road starts |
| Jake Burger to hit a home run (+435 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.09u | Burger has homered twice in five at-bats off Grant Holmes |
| Jac Caglianone to hit a home run (+360 via BetMGM) | 0.25u → 0.9u | The HR Derby participant should blast his first homer post-All-Star Break |
| Curtis Mead to hit a home run (+362 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.91u | The Athletics pitching staff was putrid over a 10-game losing streak |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.4 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Josh Bell (+600)
Josh Bell’s only hit in three at-bats against Shota Imanaga was a home run, and the Cubs southpaw has allowed five homers over his last four starts.
Imanaga has been burned by the hitter-friendly wind too often at Wrigley Field, as his numbers are worse at home across nearly every metric than on the road. Fifteen of his 22 home runs allowed have been to right-handed batters, and Bell homered in two of his last four series prior to his current eight-game homerless drought. I’m backing Bell to homer for the seventh time in his 42nd start at Wrigley Field.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Production in the clutch
Minnesota entered the weekend leading the Majors with a .286 batting average with runners in scoring position.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Jake Burger (+435)
Jake Burger has owned his head-to-head matchups against Grant Holmes, going 3-for-5 with two home runs. Burger’s 16 home runs already equal last year’s total but in nine fewer games, despite him producing a lower hard-hit rate and fly ball rate from last season.
Burger was hitless in his last 10 at-bats entering the weekend, but he still had four home runs over the last 30 days, and Holmes has allowed a 1.7 HR/9 rate at home this season, with two of his three multi-homer games allowed coming at Truist Park.
Holmes ranks in the bottom fifth of all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate, and he has allowed a .477 xSLG or worse on two of his three primary pitches.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Jac Caglianone (+360)
This wager is a complete fade of Padres righty German Marquez, who has allowed multiple home runs in each of his last two interleague starts.
Marquez has allowed seven of his 10 home runs to left-handed batters, in just 18 more at-bats than against righties. He has a respectable 2.75 road ERA, but is due regression in that split with his 10th percentile pitching run value, 17th percentile ground ball rate, and ninth percentile hard-hit rate.
Caglianone hit a ball on Friday that would have been a home run in 11 of the 30 ballparks, and I expect him to clear the fences today.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Curtis Mead (+362)
The Athletics entered the weekend with a collective ERA of 9.32 over a 10-game losing streak. They also became the first team in the modern era with a 10-game span with an OPS as low as .575 and an OPS allowed as high as 1.019.
Backing a Nationals player to homer at Sutter Health Park seems like a no-brainer, and I find the best value on Curtis Mead. Mead entered the weekend on pace for 28 home runs and 78 RBI after homering just five total times in 152 games in his career prior to this season. He is in the more advantageous split when facing Jacob Lopez, who has allowed an OPS 193 points higher to right-handed batters than lefties.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Josh Bell to hit a home run (+469)
- Jake Burger to hit a home run (+435)
- Jac Caglianone to hit a home run (+325)
- Curtis Mead to hit a home run (+362)
Best odds: +59762 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 59.8u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 187-290-1 | +43.89 units ✅ | +14.5% ✅ |
| Player props | 113-235 | +31.5 units ✅ | +18.1% ✅ |
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