Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Friday, July 17
🤑 Best NRFI Bets Today for Friday (July 17)
We're looking to a juicy pitching matchup to finish the week strong, and another affair featuring a woeful offense. The latter is White Sox vs. Blue Jays to get the evening started for us, with Bryce Miller throwing during Giants vs. Mariners later on tonight to close out my best NRFI bets today.
βΎ Best NRFI bets today: Friday, July 17
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ NRFI pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Giants vs. Mariners NRFI (-140 via DraftKings) | 1.5u β 1u | Bryce Miller is posting a 10.1 K/9. |
| White Sox vs. Blue Jays NRFI (-105 via DraftKings) | 1u β 0.95u | The Blue Jays' offense has often been struggling, and especially against lefties. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 1.95 units
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π° Best NRFI bet today
Giants vs. Mariners NRFI (-140) - 10:10 p.m. ET
- Landen Roupp (4.27) vs. Bryce Miller (2.19)
- NRFI records: Giants (50-46) vs. Mariners (50-47)
Focus on Bryce Miller here, the Mariners' gem who endured a hiccup last time out. That stumble was just his second time allowing two-plus earned runs across 10 starts, brilliance that includes four shutouts.
Miller's K/9 has risen considerably from 7.4 last year to 10.1 now. That aligns with his OPS allowed plummeting from .816 to .571, and his hard-hit rate doing the same from 48.9% to 28.6%.
Meanwhile, the Giants' Landen Roupp is also giving up so very little quality contact, with a hard-hit rate only narrowly behind Miller's mark at 28.2%.
💣️ More MLB player props
Looking for more plays? Look no further than my best home run predictions today.
π₯ More NRFI picks today
White Sox vs. Blue Jays NRFI (-105) - 7:15 p.m. ET
- Anthony Kay (4.23) vs. Spencer Miles (2.85)
- NRFI records: White Sox (43-52) vs. Blue Jays (44.52)
The underlying metrics tied to Anthony Kay indicate regression might be coming, and especially his expected ERA of 5.20 that sits far above the lefty's actual mark of 4.23. A strikeout rate of 17.6% that's sitting in the 17th percentile isn't helping either.
But that slide backward can wait for another day, as the Toronto Blue Jays' offense will boost even the most scuffling hurlers. The Jays' lineup sits fourth-last in run production, and worse for them tonight, the unit is putting up the second-worst OPS against southpaws at .649.
On the other side tonight is Spencer Miles, the Blue Jays' swingman who's been impressing while regularly limiting anything hit with authority. His barrel rate is in the 90th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Even better, his groundball rate of 54.5% is in the 93rd percentile.
💸 More on White Sox vs. Blue Jays
Looking for more analysis of this matchup? Corey Scott has you covered with his White Sox vs. Blue Jays win probability.
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 61-172-2 | -2.61 units β | 3.0% β |
| NRFI picks | 4-0-0 | +3.43 units β | 85.8% β |
π‘ How I'm betting NRFI picks today (July 12)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
A NRFI (No Run First Inning) bet carries high variance, meaning success requires a disciplined, daily dive into the data. Before placing a wager, run through a strict checklist: analyze how the starting pitcher matches up against the top three hitters in the lineup, track underlying metrics like strikeout rates (K%) and expected batting averages (xBA), and review recent team-specific first-inning scoring trends. Because a single mistake or lucky hit can ruin the bet instantly, always use this daily routine to guide your wagers and scale your unit sizing accordingly to protect your bankroll.
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