Dodgers vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, July 17

After a one-game teaser yesterday, the second half of the MLB season kicks off in earnest today with a three-game series between two of the sport’s most storied franchises as the New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a rematch of the 2024 World Series. My Dodgers vs. Yankees prediction backs the home underdogs in a near coin-flip game, with Trent Grisham taking advantage of the short porch in right field for a home run.  

First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network) and features a pitching matchup between Roki Sasaki and Gerrit Cole. I’m fading Sasaki from a strikeout perspective with the last of my MLB picks even though the Bronx Bombers have a lot of swing-and-miss hitters in their lineup.  

⚾ Dodgers vs. Yankees picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.16 units

🏆 Who will win Dodgers vs. Yankees?

The Dodgers went 1-3 in Sasaki’s last four starts against teams winning with records as of the All-Star Break, so we’re getting great value on the home ‘dogs in this series opener.

Score prediction: Yankees 6, Dodgers 5

💰 Dodgers vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

Yankees ML (-104)

Sasaki had a six-start stretch through early June in which he pitched to a 2.55 ERA and a 38:8 K:BB ratio over 35.1 innings. But it has been downhill since then, as he has posted an 8.61 ERA in five starts. He hasn’t thrown 90 pitches in a game since June 19.

The Yankees have lost three of Cole’s last four starts, but all the losses came on the road. New York has a plus-13 run differential in his last two home starts against teams that occupied playoff spots in the AL at the All-Star Break. 

🔥 Best Dodgers vs. Yankees player prop bet

Roki Sasaki Under 4.5 strikeouts (+122)

Since the calendar turned to June, no AL team has struck out more against right-handed pitching than the Yankees (25.4%). In that same timeframe, New York also ranks 25th in batting average and 26th in on-base percentage, but has gotten by with an ISO that is still top-7. 

Sasaki’s downturn over his last five starts coincides with his inability to miss bats. He has a high of six strikeouts over his last five starts, while issuing multiple walks three times in that span. His lack of control has also prompted quick hooks, as he has recorded 18 outs just once in his last five starts, and that came against the NL’s worst team (Rockies).

If New York can lay off Sasaki’s splitter which induced just one called strike on 35 pitches in his last start, it should grind out at-bats that frustrate the righty.

💣 Dodgers vs. Yankees home run prediction

Trent Grisham to hit a home run (+390)

In 10 games since returning from a month-long IL stint, Trent Grisham has two home runs and five total extra-base hits, while churning out a .822 OPS. 

Grisham’s compact swing is perfect to take advantage of the short field in right at Yankee Stadium, but even he would likely tell you how surprised he is by his .302 batting average and .977 OPS in home games. That has resulted in six of his 10 home runs being hit in the Bronx, in 47 fewer at-bats than on the road.

Sasaki has allowed a whopping nine home runs over his last five starts, and his 3.52 HR/9 rate is the second-worst among all pitchers in that span (min. 20 IP).

🚀 Dodgers vs. Yankees same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely to help New York's chances of winning outright. I may regret swapping Grisham's home run wager with him to drive in a run, as he has homered in two of the last three games where he has an RBI. Either way, I am giving myself more of a chance to cash this SGP with his RBI prop, and we're still returning great value on a three-leg wager.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Dodgers vs. Yankees: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

It is rare to be able to wager on the Yankees as home underdogs, which they've been just twice all season. Granted, New York is 0-2 in that split, but it went a profitable 4-4 in that role last season, and the starting pitching matchup is in its favor tonight. The total is also one of the four-highest of any game on Friday's slate, but there were conflicting trends there as not only is this a game between two of the top offenses in the league, but also two of the best pitching staffs.

📊 Live Dodgers vs. Yankees odds

This game started close to a pick'em at several MLB betting sites, but the line has since moved slightly in the Dodgers' favor, with Los Angeles as high as -122 moneyline favorites (carrying a 54.95% implied probability) at bet365. The slight line movement is justified by the 56% of the early wagers that have backed the road favorites.

bet365 is the only one of the best sports betting sites currently with an O/U of 9.5, as the rest of the market is at 9. The total there has bounced between 9 and 9.5 multiple times overnight, while FanDuel was the only sportsbook to dip as low as 8.5. With the early betting splits nearly dead even (58/42) in favor of the Under, we shouldn't see much volatile change before first pitch.

📈 Dodgers vs. Yankees betting trends

🚑 Dodgers vs. Yankees injuries

📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Yankees

• Date: Friday, July 17
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
• TV: MLB Network
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Dodgers starter: Roki Sasaki (3-5, 5.33 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Gerrit Cole (3-4, 4.04 ERA)