MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Friday, July 17

Baseball is back in full to truly begin the second half of the season, and my home run predictions today are celebrating Roki Sasaki day.

The Los Angeles Dodgers' starter has become highly susceptible to long balls with his 2.1 HR/9, and the Yankees' Ben Rice is primed to feast on his weak fastball as part of my MLB home run picks.

James Wood is similarly well-positioned for liftoff, especially at the homer haven that is Sutter Health Park. And Elly De La Cruz can keep his quality contact ways going into the second half, too.

⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 17

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Home run pick: Ben Rice (+314)

Throwing absurdly hard alone often doesn't translate to success.

Sasaki boasts plenty of velocity at an average of 97.6 mph on his fastball. But he lacks movement on that pitch, and quality secondary offerings to keep hitters honest. The result is a four-seamer he leans on to an unhealthy degree, and it gets destroyed.

That includes throwing it 46% of the time to lefties like Ben Rice, even though Sasaki's fastball sits as MLB's 12th-worst in hard-hit rate allowed (58%), 18th-worst in slugging percentage given up (.606), and sixth-worst in run value. Meanwhile, Rice has posted a league-leading 1.038 OPS against four-seamers.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB Network

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Home run pick: Elly De La Cruz (+301)

Elly De La Cruz keeps taking sizable leaps to become a more well-rounded contributor in his third season. That now includes a career-best OPS of .839, up significantly from .777 last year. It's the product of a fly-ball rate that's also been soaring (20.9% last year to 29.3% now) alongside an also rising hard-hit rate (44.2% to 51.9%).

Toss in an average exit velocity that sits fourth leaguewide at 94.4 mph, and we're seeing a true rounding into form. And there's no better way to continue that into the second half than with a trip to Coors Field, and facing the Colorado Rockies' putrid and last-ranked pitching staff (5.44 ERA).

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: James Wood (+290)

James Wood does plenty of his damage at Nationals Park, MLB's most homer-friendly venue, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. Now he gets only an ever-so-slight downgrade in that regard, as Sutter Health Park, the temporary home of the Athletics, is the second-best dinger launchpad.

He'll bring his nearly unmatched power into that inviting setting, and do it while facing yet another hurler who leans heavily on heat.

Wood is posting the league's top hard-hit rate at 59.9%, and the second-best average exit velocity at 95 mph and expected slugging at .625. He's doing that while annihilating fastballs, with a .740 expected slugging against a pitch that tonight's Athletics starter Gage Jump throws 48% of the time to lefties.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

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All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.