White Sox vs. Blue Jays Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 17)
LHP Anthony Kay and RHP Spencer Miles square off today in the first game of a three-game set as we break down the White Sox vs. Blue Jays win probability.
The Blue Jays have a 55% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be higher with how poorly the White Sox have played on the road. First pitch from Rogers Centre in Toronto is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV).
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🏆 Who will win White Sox vs. Blue Jays? Live MLB win probability
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The Blue Jays have a projected 55% win probability, and more than $100,000 in volume has cleared in this market. The White Sox originally opened with a 54.5% win probability on Tuesday night, but traders have been buying more Yes contracts on Toronto as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the Blue Jays are available at 56¢, with more than $300,000 in liquidity at that price.
The White Sox entered the All-Star break off a three-game sweep of the A's in Chicago. After winning the opener 14-1 and the second game of the series 1-0, the White Sox wrapped up the set with a 9-1 victory. Outfielder Braden Montgomery (2-for-4, 4 RBIs) recorded a career-high four RBIs in the finale.
The Blue Jays lost two of three games at the Padres before the break. They won the opener 5-3 before losing 8-7 and 5-4 in the final two games. Outfielder Nathan Lukes (1-for-3, 1 RBI) hit a solo shot in the first inning of the finale, and second baseman Ernie Clement (1-for-5, 2 RBIs) added a two-run homer in the fourth.
My prediction: Blue Jays win (56¢). While Toronto hasn't been great at home - it's just 24-25 on the season at Rogers Centre - Chicago's 19-28 road record is sixth-worst in MLB. Additionally, the White Sox have lost each of Kay's last three road starts, with the lefty allowing four or more runs twice during that span.
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⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of White Sox vs. Blue Jays?
More than $17,000 in volume has been traded in this market, with a projected 50% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts (i.e., YRFI) at 51¢, you can instantly get more than $23,000 filled.
The White Sox have had a first-inning run scored in 55% of their games, while the Blue Jays have seen a run scored in the first inning in 54% of theirs. Kay has not allowed a first-inning run in either of his last two starts, while Miles hasn't allowed one in any of his three starts this season.
My prediction: No run in the first inning (50¢). Miles has been solid early in his starts this season, while the Blue Jays have scored a run in the first inning in just one of their last three games.
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📊 White Sox vs. Blue Jays win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | 45% | 54.5% | ↓ 9.5% |
| Blue Jays | 55% | 45.5% | ↑ 9.5% |
📺 How to watch White Sox vs. Blue Jays
- Date: Friday, July 17
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Rogers Centre (Toronto)
- TV: Apple TV
- White Sox starter: Anthony Kay (6-4, 4.23 ERA)
- Blue Jays starter: Spencer Miles (4-1, 2.85 ERA)
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