Sun vs. Mercury Prediction: WNBA Picks for Friday, July 17
My Sun vs. Mercury prediction will lay the points with Phoenix (-4.5) in a matchup between two teams well outside the WNBA championship odds race.
Tipoff for Phoenix (8-17) vs. Connecticut (6-18) is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET on Friday at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix (ION).
🏀 Sun vs. Mercury prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury -4.5 (-105 via theScore Bet) | 0.5u → 0.47u | The Sun rank last in the league in net rating, a mark that gets more than five points worse on the road. |
| Mercury double result (-105 via FanDuel) | 0.5u → 0.47u | Phoenix has had a first-half lead in six of its eight wins this year. |
| Alyssa Thomas Over 6.5 rebounds (-125 via bet365) | 1u → 0.8u | Alyssa Thomas has averaged 1.1 more rebounds per game in wins this year. |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.74 units
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🏆 Who will win Sun vs. Mercury?
I predict the Mercury to win by seven points in their home matchup with the Sun on Friday. Phoenix has dropped four straight since its three-game win streak earlier in the month, but that can be explained by the level of competition.
As long as the Mercury are facing an inferior team, I can make an argument for backing them. And that's certainly the case on Friday when the Sun come to town.
Score prediction: Mercury 85, Sun 78
💰 Sun vs. Mercury prediction & best bet
Mercury -4.5 (-105)
It's difficult to believe in either team right now, but the Sun have been the worst team in the league this year. Their net rating of -8.3 ranks last and is more than two points worse than any other squad.
Somehow, Connecticut is even worse on the road. The Sun's net rating is -13.6 away from home, which is also last in the WNBA.
Phoenix isn't the team that reached last year's WNBA Finals, but it should take care of business in this matchup.
🔥 Best Sun vs. Mercury player prop bet
Alyssa Thomas Over 6.5 rebounds (-125)
Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas isn't having the same level of production in 2026, but this is one of those situations where I want to back her at all costs.
For one, Thomas is averaging 1.1 more rebounds per game in Phoenix's wins this year. Her rebounding numbers also improve without Natasha Mack, who's listed as doubtful tonight.
For another noteworthy injury angle, Aneesah Morrow is doubtful for the Sun. Brittney Griner will see increased playing time in her return to Phoenix, but she's only averaging 5.6 boards per contest.
With this prop as high as 7.5 in the market, I like the Over on 6.5 boards at -130 or better.
🚀 Sun vs. Mercury same-game parlay
I'm projecting a strong performance from the Mercury to snap their four-game slide. The market seems to agree that it's plausible, as this parlay only comes out to +275 at bet365. All three legs are correlated to a solid effort from the home side, needing the Mercury to get off to a fast start before creating more cushion in the end.
💵 Sun vs. Mercury SGP picks
- Mercury -4.5 (-115)
- Mercury first-half ML (-165)
- Alyssa Thomas Over 6.5 rebounds (-125)
Best odds: +275 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.27u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 62-80-1 | +6.75 units ✅ | 6.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 22-15 | +5.42 units ✅ | 14.7% ✅ |
| Parlays | 3-32 | -1.99 units ❌ | -56.7% ❌ |
📊 Live Sun vs. Mercury odds
📺 How to watch Sun vs. Mercury
- Date: Friday, July 17
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: ION
- Streaming: WNBA League Pass
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