Sparks vs. Sky Prediction: WNBA Picks for Friday, July 17
My Sparks vs. Sky prediction breaks down tonight's matchup between two teams in the bottom eight of the WNBA championship odds.
Tipoff from Wintrust Arena in Chicago is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ION), with Chicago entering as a 1.5-point betting favorite.
🏀 Sparks vs. Sky prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Sparks ML (+105 via BetMGM) | 0.5u → 0.52u | I'd make the Sparks a slight favorite tonight, suggesting value on their current moneyline price. |
| Over 182.5 (-114 via Pinnacle) | 0.5u → 0.44u | These two teams are a combined 31-14 to the Over this year, including last week's head-to-head meeting. |
| Rae Burrell 15-plus points (-119 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.84u | Rae Burrell has scored 15-plus points in eight of her 11 matchups without Kelsey Plum, including each of her last four games. |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.8 units
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🏆 Who will win Sparks vs. Sky?
I predict the Sparks to win by one point in a high-scoring showdown with the Sky in Chicago. Despite being without Kelsey Plum, Los Angeles continues to hang around in the playoff picture. The Sparks are two games back of the final playoff spot, so any matchup against a lottery team is a must-win situation for them. I'd make them a slight favorite on the road tonight.
Score prediction: Sparks 93, Sky 92
💰 Sparks vs. Sky prediction & best bet
Over 182.5 (-114)
Both the Sparks and Sky have been easy Over teams this year. They are a combined 31-14 to the Over, which includes their head-to-head meeting last week. There were 189 total points scored in last Friday's matchup in Los Angeles, in which the Sparks earned a 102-87 win.
In that game, both teams played at an 86-possession pace.
As a result, I'm surprised to see this total drop since opening around 185. I'd play the Over at 183.5 or better, though it's worth pouncing on this mark at Pinnacle.
🔥 Best Sparks vs. Sky player prop bet
Rae Burrell 15-plus points (-119)
Sparks wing Rae Burrell has seen the biggest bump in production since Plum's injury. She's averaging 15.9 points in the 11 games without Plum this season, which is an increase of 5.5 points per contest. Burrell has cleared this line in eight of those 11 matchups.
Last Friday, Burrell scored 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting against the Sky. Counting that performance, Burrell has scored 17 or more points in each of her past four outings. She's averaging 20.3 points over that span.
Burrell's scoring line is as high as 15.5 in the market, so I'm taking advantage of DraftKings' discount. The Over on 14.5 points for Burrell actually costs -123 at DraftKings, but the same shop offers -119 odds on 15-plus points in the alternate market.
🏀 More WNBA player props today
I feature Caitlin Clark in my Storm vs. Fever prediction.
🚀 Sparks vs. Sky same-game parlay
There is no reason to risk too much on this Sparks vs. Sky parlay, as tonight's matchup is a coin-flip for a reason. I give a slight edge to the Sparks, suggesting some value on their moneyline price. But I'm way more confident in Burrell having another strong showing in a game that should feature plenty of offense.
💵 Sparks vs. Sky SGP picks
- Sparks ML (+102)
- Over 183.5 (-108)
- Rae Burrell 15-plus points (-119)
Best odds: +415 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.41u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 62-80-1 | +6.75 units ✅ | 6.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 22-15 | +5.42 units ✅ | 14.7% ✅ |
| Parlays | 3-32 | -1.99 units ❌ | -56.7% ❌ |
📊 Live Sparks vs. Sky odds
📺 How to watch Sparks vs. Sky
- Date: Friday, July 17
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Wintrust Arena (Chicago)
- TV: ION
- Streaming: WNBA League Pass
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