White Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, July 19

The Chicago White Sox are arguably MLB’s biggest surprise, clinging to a share of the AL Central lead as they look to take the rubber match of a three-game road series against the Toronto Blue Jays. My White Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction, though, likes Toronto as a +100 betting underdog.

The starting pitching matchup features Sean Burke and Trey Yesavage, with first pitch from Rogers Centre in Toronto set for 12:15 p.m. ET (Peacock). I expect Yesavage to hold one of Chicago’s top rookies hitless, and I back a fellow Toronto rookie to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ White Sox vs. Blue Jays picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.19 units

🏆 Who will win White Sox vs. Blue Jays?

Chicago is an outstanding home team, but its 20-29 road record leaves something to be desired, and has me backing Toronto to pull out the finale of this three-game series.

Score prediction: Blue Jays 4, White Sox 3

💰 White Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction & best bet

Blue Jays ML (+100)

Trey Yesavage has seemed to turn a corner when pitching at the Rogers Centre. He followed up three straight home starts of five-plus earned runs allowed with back-to-back starts allowing just one earned run in a combined 12 ⅓ innings.

Chicago’s surprise season is mostly due to production from rookies, as its rookies collectively lead the majors in hits, extra-base hits, and RBI. But that does not seem sustainable over 162 games, especially when the pressure of a division race catches up to them. I expect the White Sox’ five-game winning streak in Sean Burke’s starts to end.

🔥 Best White Sox vs. Blue Jays player prop bet

Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 hits (+130)

The White Sox have outscored their opponents 36-7 since Munetaka Murakami returned from injury, but the Japanese rookie slugger has contributed little to that offensive success. Murakami is just 3-for-18 with eight strikeouts in his five games played since the end of May. 

Trey Yesavage had serious control issues with seven walks in his last start. But he did only allow just one hit prior to being removed after 59 pitches, and has now allowed four or fewer hits in 10 of his previous 12 starts. That feat has him ranked in the 92nd percentile in xBA, and opponents are batting just .203 and .113 against his two primary pitches (4-seam fastball and split-finger) which he throws a combined 75.3% of the time.

💣 White Sox vs. Blue Jays home run prediction

Kazuma Okamoto to hit a home run (+354)

Kazuma Okamoto entered the All-Star Break on pace for 20 doubles, 37 home runs, and 105 RBI. And in his previous 35 games, he was batting .279 with a .898 OPS. He has not gone more than seven games since June 12 without a homer, which is why I remain unconcerned he hasn’t gone deep in any of his last four. 

Sean Burke has allowed at least one home run in six of his last seven starts, and eight long balls allowed over that span. Nine of his 13 home runs allowed this season have come against left-handed batters, and Okamoto should connect on a deep fly ball with his 90th-percentile barrel rate against Burke’s 23rd percentile ground ball rate.

🚀 White Sox vs. Blue Jays same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely together in helping Toronto to win outright. I love Murakami's chances to go hitless against a power pitcher like Yesavage, but am giving myself some wiggle room with his total bases prop. I'm also keeping my play on Okamoto to homer given the juice I'm laying with the first two legs of the SGP, in an attempt to maximize profits.

The combination of Murakami going hitless and Toronto winning has a great ROI, as the White Sox have lost 10 of the last 17 games Murakami has started and failed to produce a hit.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting White Sox vs. Blue Jays: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

It was somewhat surprising to be able to play Toronto at plus-money odds after it evened the series yesterday, albeit after a narrow 1-0 victory. From a player prop perspective, I toyed with the idea of wagering on Murakami's total bases. But two of the slugger's three hits since returning from injury have gone for extra bases, and the -170 juice (62.96% implied odds) to back the Under of 1.5 was much too steep. Instead, I took a flier on a much better payout for him to go hitless.

📊 Live White Sox vs. Blue Jays odds

There is a wide 12-cent gap at the best MLB betting sites between BetMGM's -110 odds for Chicago at a virtual pick'em and the -122 odds (carrying a 54.95% implied probability) at the high end of the market at bet365. Sharp action likely drove the line movement down at BetMGM from an opening number of -115 considering the early betting splits are dead even on both sides.

The market is split on a total of 8 and 8.5, as currently FanDuel and bet365 are offering the higher number. The latter is the only top sports betting site to see any fluctuation in its number, bouncing back and forth between 8 and 8.5. All others have remained firm at their opening number.

📈 White Sox vs. Blue Jays betting trends

🚑 White Sox vs. Blue Jays injuries

📺 How to watch White Sox vs. Blue Jays

• Date: Sunday, July 19
• First pitch: 12:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Rogers Centre (Toronto)
• Streaming: Peacock
• White Sox starter: Sean Burke (6-4, 3.41 ERA)
• Blue Jays starter: Trey Yesavage (4-4, 3.72 ERA)