MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Tuesday, July 21
I'm looking to keep rolling in my home run predictions today after CJ Abrams came through yesterday at juicy +411 betting odds.
To do that, I'll lean on a soaring slugger and MLB Rookie of the Year odds contender on the AL side, and he's in an ideal situation that suits his strengths. That's Munetaka Murakami, the Japanese star who consistently blasts lasers.
Elsewhere in my MLB home run picks, don't try to resist the allure of both Coors Field and Miles Mikolas, and Willson Contreras gets the perfect matchup to keep launching sinkers.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 21
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami home run (+324 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.65u | Kumar Rocker is still struggling mightily against lefties. |
| Willson Contreras (+464 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.93u | One of MLB's best hitters against sinkers should see his pitch plenty tonight. |
| Mickey Moniak home run (+252 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.50u | Miles Mikolas at Coors Field? Oh, yes please. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.08 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Munetaka Murakami (+324)
Texas Rangers righty Kumar Rocker is finally showing a pulse in his third season, or at least taking baby steps. But he's still woeful in one key area.
Rocker has few solutions for lefties, and tonight he'll face one of the fastest-rising lefty power sources in Murakami. Rocker, who has been rocked during July while giving up a 9.00 ERA and .667 slugging percentage, is posting a .586 OPS allowed to righties and an .857 to lefties.
That could lead to a less-than-enjoyable night against Murakami, who boasts the third-best hard-hit rate leaguewide at 58.6%.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: The three truest outcomes
Murakami will sell out for power plenty, which results in lots of strikeouts. But he's not afraid to sit on his pitch and take the jog to first too, and his walk rate rests in the 99th percentile.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Willson Contreras (+464)
Contreras has been thriving during what's easily on pace to be a career-best campaign. He's clubbed 22 homers as of July 21, already just two shy of his career single-season peak.
But he's especially caught fire in July while unsurprisingly being a catalyst during Boston's mammoth 14-game winning streak. The first baseman is posting a 1.243 OPS during the month.
He also remains the league's best slugger against sinkers, which sets him up beautifully tonight. Contreras sits third MLB-wide with an .827 slugging percentage against sinkers, and now he'll be up against Kyle Bradish, who leans on his sinker 40% of the time against righties.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB picks for Tuesday
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today or his best strikeout props today.
Home run pick: Mickey Moniak (+252)
Miles Mikolas has been a home run charity case for years. Yet despite both that and what can feel like an outright refusal to strike a batter out (his K/9 is a disastrous and career-worst 4.8 this year), he keeps getting starts.
And tonight the mound he'll take is in Coors Field. So a hurler with a 1.9 HR/9 who's tied for the 10th-most dingers allowed overall this season (20) will be trying not to get pummeled in one of the league's most homer-friendly venues.
Coors Field is especially generous homer-wise to lefties while fourth in that regard, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. That's the side of the plate the Rockies' Mickey Moniak bats from, and he demolishes righties to the tune of a .942 OPS. He also unsurprisingly thrives at home while producing a 1.027 OPS.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Munetaka Murakami home run (+324)
- Willson Contreras home run (+464)
- Mickey Moniak home run (+252)
Best odds: +8059 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.6u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 66-177-2 | +0.31 units β | +0.3% β |
| Home run picks | 35-116-0 | +0.01 units β | +2.9% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-43 | +0.58 units β | +0.66% β |
Related Articles
