Dodgers vs. Phillies Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 21)
There isn't a dominant side in the Dodgers vs. Phillies win probability from the prediction market apps, which is surely tied to a flame-throwing mound duel.
The two powerhouses will trot out starters with bewildering fastballs, with Zack Wheeler and Justin Wrobleski set to light up the night.
The Phillies are getting a narrow win-probability edge at 52% ahead of a contest in which scoring could prove difficult.
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🏆 Who will win Dodgers vs. Phillies? Live MLB win probability
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This clash between two NL giants, one of which leads the World Series odds, is receiving a colossal $1.2 million in trading volume. The two teams have been flip-flopping the win probability lead, with the Phillies now getting the narrow advantage at 52%.
That comes after Philadelphia won a 10-7 shootout last night, and now today's contest could take on a much different form with two imposing hurlers on the mound.
For the Phillies, it'll be Zack Wheeler and his 10.5 K/9, which has led to a 2.13 ERA, and the latter is a career-best for the 36-year-old three-time All-Star. He leans on his fastball heavily, and why not since it's such an effective weapon. Opposing hitters are producing a batting average of just .146 against that offering while whiffing 31.3% of the time, according to Baseball Savant.
Few in MLB boast a four-seamer on par or above Wheeler's offering, but his mound opponent tonight is the exception. Justin Wrobleski's four-seamer is getting the third-best run value leaguewide. His command is also pristine, with Wrobleski's walk rate sitting in the 96th percentile.
My prediction: Phillies win. As great as he's been, the contact Wrobleski does allow has been loud. He can comparatively struggle against lefties too, and the Phillies boast a few of those with significant power.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Dodgers vs. Phillies?
| Hitter | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 29% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 26% |
| Bryce Harper | 17% |
| Freddie Freeman | 17% |
| Trea Turner | 16% |
| Mookie Betts | 12% |
Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani sit among the top 10 MLB-wide in home runs after clubbing 33 and 22, respectively. So it's no surprise to see those two getting the highest home run probability tonight.
But riding with one of them isn't appealing given the likely lack of dingers in this game overall. Dodgers hitters are even less alluring in that regard, as Wheeler has put up an HR/9 of just 1.0, which aligns with his also lowly career mark of 0.9.
He suppresses the long ball significantly, whereas the contact Wrobleski does give up has come with some power. His hard-hit rate allowed rests in just the 21st percentile, and in Bryce Harper he gets an opponent who can match his fastball dominance. Harper is posting the seventh-best slugging percentage against four-seamers at .744.
My prediction: Bryce Harper to hit a home run. Harper is also producing a 57.1% hard-hit rate against fastballs. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my best home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Dodgers vs. Phillies?
There was a brief and odd spike in this market, with last night's offensive outburst from the two teams not doubt fueling the expectation of more early runs. The market was hovering around 49% before skyrocketing to 62%, then promptly tumbling back down to 47%.
The latter is the proper assessment of the first frame tonight, and it may even be a smidge high still.
Wrobleski will mix in a sinker to lefties, but he primarily leans on his fastball and slider, and the latter is also a steep challenge for hitters. It comes with a .353 slugging percentage allowed. And three of Wheeler's top four pitches carry a hard-hit rate of 26% or lower.
My prediction: No run in the first inning. Getting a hit against these two hurlers when they're at full strength is tough enough, let alone pushing a run across. For more, see our best NRFI bets today from MLB expert Dustin Saracini.
📊 Dodgers vs. Phillies win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 48% | 53% | ↓ 5% |
| Phillies | 52% | 47% | ↑ 5% |
📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Phillies
- Date: Tuesday, July 21
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- TV: MLB.TV
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Dodgers starter: Justin Wrobleski (10-2, 2.69 ERA)
- Phillies starter: Zack Wheeler (10-1, 2.13 ERA)
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