Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction, Picks & Odds Today for ALDS Game 4
The Cleveland Guardians are on the brink of elimination as they find themselves in a 2-1 hole when facing the Detroit Tigers in Game 4 of the Division Series. The Tigers have soared up the World Series odds with the ALCS in reach.
- This is Detroit’s second home playoff game since 2014
- After Game 3 finished 3-0, the Under is 21-3-4 in Cleveland’s games since the start of September
- Cleveland has not won a World Series in 76 years
Our Guardians vs. Tigers prediction expects Cleveland to break out of its offensive slump enough to send this series back to Progressive Field for a decisive fifth game on Saturday.
Guardians vs. Tigers predictions: Game 4
- Moneyline pick: Guardians (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 strikeouts (+136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Guardians vs. Tigers?
First pitch: 6:08 p.m. ET, Comerica Park
Guardians to win (-112) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.83%
The Guardians remain small road favorites in Game 4 despite not scoring in 20 consecutive innings. That is the longest scoreless streak in franchise postseason history.
Cleveland opened this series with a five-run outburst in the first inning of Game 1, and has totaled just two runs on 12 hits in the 26 innings since. The Guardians went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position on Wednesday.
The encouraging sign is that they out-hit Detroit yesterday despite using a pitcher (Alex Cobb) making his fourth start of the season. They also used six relievers.
According to MLB's Sarah Langs, history is not on Cleveland’s side. In a best-of-five series tied 1-1 entering this postseason, the Game 3 winner has won the series 73% of the time. And in this current 2-2-1 format, home teams up 2-1 have won 81% of the series, with 18 of the 25 series ending in Game 4.
However, the Guardians have their best pitcher going in Tanner Bibee. Not only has the team won his last three starts, but they are 4-1 in his five starts against the Tigers this season.
Cleveland’s implied win probability is as high as 54.55% based on DraftKings’ -120 odds, so I am making my $10 wager at FanDuel, where a winning bet would return a payout of $18.93.
See the rest of our MLB picks.
My Guardians vs. Tigers best bet
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Prediction: Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +136 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 42.37%
Tanner Bibee went over this projected total with six strikeouts in just 4 2/3 innings in Game 1, but we are getting plus-money odds to back the Over again, as he has recorded six-plus strikeouts in just two of his five starts against Detroit this season.
I am making the Over a three-star play, as the Game 1 start was the first time Bibee faced Detroit since July, and the Tigers had the third-worst strikeout rate (26%) in the regular season's final month.
Detroit entered this series with 11 players with a strikeout rate of 24% or worse, and Zach McKinstry was the only hitter on the postseason roster that struck out better than 22% of the time.
If Cleveland wins there is an off-day tomorrow, but I expect Bibee will get a longer leash than the 76 pitches he threw in Game 1 given that the Guardians used six relievers in Game 3.
A winning $10 wager at FanDuel’s +136 odds would net $13.60 in profits.
Guardians vs. Tigers odds & Game 4 info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 10
- First pitch: 6:08 p.m. ET
- Where: Comerica Park (Detroit)
- How to watch: TBS//Max
- Favorite: Guardians (-112 via FanDuel)
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